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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
054 FNUS21 KWNS 171651 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEVADA... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Cascades. Mid-level flow is strong enough to support fast storm motions, but with increasing precipitable water and overall thunderstorm coverage should limit dry thunderstorm potential to early on in the thunderstorm life cycle. As such, have left the isolated dry thunderstorm area as is. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as upper ridging amplifies over the Rockies into the Plains today. Surface cyclone development is likely to the lee of the Cascades by afternoon, promoting ample buoyancy, lift, and shear for thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Otherwise, strong downslope and isallobaric flow across the western Great Basin ahead of the upper trough/surface low will promote widespread dry and breezy conditions capable of supporting wildfire spread. ...Along and to the lee of the Cascades - Thunderstorms... By late afternoon, multiple strong thunderstorms should develop amid strong flow aloft. Some of the storms may be high-based, with a couple of dry strikes possible. Of greater concern is the potential for erratic and strong to possibly severe gusts, which may exacerbate ongoing fire concerns, as well as with ignitions from strikes accompanying the storms. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been maintained. ...Harney Basin and western Great Basin - Dry/Windy Conditions... By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected to drop into the 15-20 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. When also considering the contribution of isallobaric flow, winds may sustain above 20 mph, particularly over portions of the Harney Basin and in southwestern Nevada, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Otherwise, Elevated highlights remain over a broader area where dry and breezy conditions are expected to overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$