054
FNUS21 KWNS 171651
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEVADA...

No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions
of the Cascades. Mid-level flow is strong enough to support fast
storm motions, but with increasing precipitable water and overall
thunderstorm coverage should limit dry thunderstorm potential to
early on in the thunderstorm life cycle. As such, have left the
isolated dry thunderstorm area as is.

..Marsh.. 08/17/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as upper ridging
amplifies over the Rockies into the Plains today. Surface cyclone
development is likely to the lee of the Cascades by afternoon,
promoting ample buoyancy, lift, and shear for thunderstorms, some of
which may be strong. Otherwise, strong downslope and isallobaric
flow across the western Great Basin ahead of the upper
trough/surface low will promote widespread dry and breezy conditions
capable of supporting wildfire spread.

...Along and to the lee of the Cascades - Thunderstorms...
By late afternoon, multiple strong thunderstorms should develop amid
strong flow aloft. Some of the storms may be high-based, with a
couple of dry strikes possible. Of greater concern is the potential
for erratic and strong to possibly severe gusts, which may
exacerbate ongoing fire concerns, as well as with ignitions from
strikes accompanying the storms. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been maintained.

...Harney Basin and western Great Basin - Dry/Windy Conditions...
By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected to drop into the 15-20
percent range as the boundary layer mixes. When also considering the
contribution of isallobaric flow, winds may sustain above 20 mph,
particularly over portions of the Harney Basin and in southwestern
Nevada, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Otherwise,
Elevated highlights remain over a broader area where dry and breezy
conditions are expected to overlap with dry fuel beds.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$