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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
907 FNUS21 KWNS 111613 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A pair of isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas have been introduced for this morning`s forecast update. 12 UTC soundings from BOI and OTX sampled relatively dry low-level conditions and PWAT values similar to previous days that have seen a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. MRMS rainfall estimates and surface observations suggest that most locations have not received wetting rainfall over the past 48 hours with several lightning-caused fire starts have been reported during this period. Morning HREF guidance shows a signal for isolated convection this afternoon and early Tuesday morning with favorable thermodynamic profiles in place for a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms. Given recent observations, the model signals, and antecedent fuel conditions, risk highlights appear warranted. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across west-central NV in the immediate lee of the northern Sierra Nevada as well as across portions of eastern NV. However, such conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present on the poleward side of a flattened upper-level ridge in the southern U.S. With time, a shortwave trough will amplify and move into northern California and the northwest Great Basin. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be rather disorganized until stronger pressure falls occur in the Northwest late in the period. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low for most areas today. Some locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada. RH will likely be in the 10-15% range, but winds will be light. The potential for thunderstorms over sufficiently dry fuels is also too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$