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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
255 FNUS21 KWNS 131525 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$