255
FNUS21 KWNS 131525
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 131700Z - 141200Z

The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to
the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to
account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of
northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits
the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS
estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still
anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into
west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional
details.

..Moore.. 08/13/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will
move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and
Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly
low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward
into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT
values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms.
Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across
portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada.
However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any
stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of
eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round
should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more
confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period
thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about
25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are
receptive to new ignitions.

...Dry/Windy...
Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across
northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some
receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will
fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be
localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight
areas at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$