911
FXUS63 KDVN 082341
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
641 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near daily chances for showers and storms through the forecast
  period, but generally between a 10-30% chance. Chances for
  severe weather remain low at this time.

- Temperatures near normal through much of the week, trending
  warmer and above average Friday and through the weekend.

- Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi
  River with most sites cresting or starting to fall this week,
  while flooding continues on parts of the Iowa, Cedar and
  Wapsipinicon Rivers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Weak upper wave continues to push through our north today, with the
best forcing being seen north and east of the area. Although, a weak
surface low will bring through a surface cold front as well, which
may allow isolated showers/storms to develop this afternoon.
Overall, coverage is forecast to be low. Much of this will be
diurnally driven, as forcing is quite low throughout the area. Thus,
much of the area will be dry, especially after sunset. Cloud cover
will increase through tonight, as Tropical Storm Beryl progresses
northeast. With more clouds around, temperatures should moderate a
bit, keeping temperatures a little warmer than the previous nights.

Tomorrow, the wave will be pushing to our east, leaving us in
northwesterly flow aloft and also pushing the tropical system east
of the area. Although, the tropical system will pass close enough
that we will have a risk for rainfall in our far southeast. If we
end up seeing rain, they may see upwards to a half inch. Otherwise,
much of the area should remain dry. Short term guidance seems to
bring in some afternoon showers/storms once again, but confidence
remains low, as northwesterly flow converging with the northeasterly
flow from the northwest quadrant of the tropical system should
produce localized downward motion. Also, the main moisture coming
into the area will be anything that gyrates around the tropical
system, which shouldn`t be much. Thus, heavy rainfall is not
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Wednesday, the remnants of Beryl will be east of the area, with some
remaining showers possible in the morning. Confidence is low on how
long the showers last through the morning, with most of guidance
having it out of our area before sunrise. Although, will mention the
possibility of showers into the morning, decreasing through the
morning.

After this system moves out of the area, we will remain under
northwesterly flow as a ridge continues to build out west. With this
pattern in mind, we will see several weak impulses pass through the
flow, resulting in persistent chances for precipitation through the
week. Wednesday and Thursday seem to be the best chances for the
week, as an upper low digs south towards our area, slowing down and
cutting off north of the area. Thus, we will see continuous bouts of
energy pass through the area during that time period. One of the
limiting factors will be the moisture availability, which can
severely limit rainfall coverage those days. Overall, heavy rain is
not expected at this time, nor severe weather. Rather, a mostly
cloudy couple of days with showers and storms possible.

Heading into next weekend, the pattern remains largely the same
here. Although, the ridge out west will continue to deepen,
amplifying our northwesterly flow overhead. This will allow for more
weak impulses to pass through the flow, continuing the precipitation
chances into the weekend. Although, moisture will be lacking once
again, which will limit rainfall coverage. In any case, this is far
enough out that it will change a handful of times until that point.
LLVL winds will favor bouts of warm advection though, which will
favor above normal temperatures. If we see increases in moisture
coupled with these temperatures, we will have to consider messaging
more on the potential for heat this weekend. At the moment,
confidence is low in this. Thus, stay tuned as we approach the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions and light winds are expected overnight into
Tuesday. Patchy shallow ground fog may develop late
tonight/early Tuesday morning, but have low confidence on
direct impacts to the terminals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Precipitation in the next few days, especially in Iowa, is expected
to be dry or very light. Thus, routed flow will continue on all of
our rivers.

The Mississippi River is currently cresting at major levels upstream
of Camanche, IA, and near crest through Illinois City.  The crest
may take 1 to as much as 3 days to pass. From Le Claire to
Burlington, the respective crests will commence within the next 1 to
2 days.

Keokuk is now forecast to crest within Moderate Flood category
beginning Friday.  Gregory Landing is forecast to remain near 19.5
feet through the week.

Tributary Rivers:


The Cedar River at Cedar Rapids crested below flood stage and will
fall over the next several days.

On the Cedar River at Conesville, minor flooding will continue. It
will see a secondary crest near 14.4 feet Wednesday night into
Thursday.

The Wapsipinicon River at Dewitt is forecast to remain in
moderate flooding category through late on Friday.

The Iowa River at Oakville is seeing high water levels due to
backwater affects from the Mississippi River. It is forecast to
remain near 11.4 or 11.5 feet through midweek and then rise to near
12.1 feet late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Uttech
HYDROLOGY...Gunkel