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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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192 FXUS63 KDVN 090528 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near daily chances for showers and storms through the forecast period, but generally between a 10-30% chance. Chances for severe weather remain low at this time. - Temperatures near normal through much of the week, trending warmer and above average Friday and through the weekend. - Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi River with most sites cresting or starting to fall this week, while flooding continues on parts of the Iowa, Cedar and Wapsipinicon Rivers. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Weak upper wave continues to push through our north today, with the best forcing being seen north and east of the area. Although, a weak surface low will bring through a surface cold front as well, which may allow isolated showers/storms to develop this afternoon. Overall, coverage is forecast to be low. Much of this will be diurnally driven, as forcing is quite low throughout the area. Thus, much of the area will be dry, especially after sunset. Cloud cover will increase through tonight, as Tropical Storm Beryl progresses northeast. With more clouds around, temperatures should moderate a bit, keeping temperatures a little warmer than the previous nights. Tomorrow, the wave will be pushing to our east, leaving us in northwesterly flow aloft and also pushing the tropical system east of the area. Although, the tropical system will pass close enough that we will have a risk for rainfall in our far southeast. If we end up seeing rain, they may see upwards to a half inch. Otherwise, much of the area should remain dry. Short term guidance seems to bring in some afternoon showers/storms once again, but confidence remains low, as northwesterly flow converging with the northeasterly flow from the northwest quadrant of the tropical system should produce localized downward motion. Also, the main moisture coming into the area will be anything that gyrates around the tropical system, which shouldn`t be much. Thus, heavy rainfall is not expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Wednesday, the remnants of Beryl will be east of the area, with some remaining showers possible in the morning. Confidence is low on how long the showers last through the morning, with most of guidance having it out of our area before sunrise. Although, will mention the possibility of showers into the morning, decreasing through the morning. After this system moves out of the area, we will remain under northwesterly flow as a ridge continues to build out west. With this pattern in mind, we will see several weak impulses pass through the flow, resulting in persistent chances for precipitation through the week. Wednesday and Thursday seem to be the best chances for the week, as an upper low digs south towards our area, slowing down and cutting off north of the area. Thus, we will see continuous bouts of energy pass through the area during that time period. One of the limiting factors will be the moisture availability, which can severely limit rainfall coverage those days. Overall, heavy rain is not expected at this time, nor severe weather. Rather, a mostly cloudy couple of days with showers and storms possible. Heading into next weekend, the pattern remains largely the same here. Although, the ridge out west will continue to deepen, amplifying our northwesterly flow overhead. This will allow for more weak impulses to pass through the flow, continuing the precipitation chances into the weekend. Although, moisture will be lacking once again, which will limit rainfall coverage. In any case, this is far enough out that it will change a handful of times until that point. LLVL winds will favor bouts of warm advection though, which will favor above normal temperatures. If we see increases in moisture coupled with these temperatures, we will have to consider messaging more on the potential for heat this weekend. At the moment, confidence is low in this. Thus, stay tuned as we approach the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR conditions to prevail for most if not all of the TAF cycle at the terminals. Some guidance was hinting at some MVFR/IFR fog to develop prior to sunrise at all sites, but with the expected cirrus shield from TS Beryl overhead, feel this will not be as widespread as some models indicate. In any case, introduced some brief MVFR vsbys at CID/MLI/BRL, where recent rains have moistened the BL. After sunrise, high clouds will remain, with winds remaining under 6 kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Precipitation in the next few days, especially in Iowa, is expected to be dry or very light. Thus, routed flow will continue on all of our rivers. The Mississippi River is currently cresting at major levels upstream of Camanche, IA, and near crest through Illinois City. The crest may take 1 to as much as 3 days to pass. From Le Claire to Burlington, the respective crests will commence within the next 1 to 2 days. Keokuk is now forecast to crest within Moderate Flood category beginning Friday. Gregory Landing is forecast to remain near 19.5 feet through the week. Tributary Rivers: The Cedar River at Cedar Rapids crested below flood stage and will fall over the next several days. On the Cedar River at Conesville, minor flooding will continue. It will see a secondary crest near 14.4 feet Wednesday night into Thursday. The Wapsipinicon River at Dewitt is forecast to remain in moderate flooding category through late on Friday. The Iowa River at Oakville is seeing high water levels due to backwater affects from the Mississippi River. It is forecast to remain near 11.4 or 11.5 feet through midweek and then rise to near 12.1 feet late Thursday into Friday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Gross HYDROLOGY...Gunkel