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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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300 FXUS63 KDVN 091041 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 541 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of showers today for areas along and east of the MS RVR from the remnants of TS Beryl. Heavy rain is not anticipated. - Increasing rain chances (30-50%) Wednesday afternoon/evening across much of the area. Severe weather is not expected. Additional diurnally driven showers/storms are possible Thursday and Saturday. - Increasing heat and humidity levels beginning Friday and into next week. Heat indices well into the 90s and even low 100s are forecast Sunday and Monday. - Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi River with most sites crested or cresting in the coming days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Early morning water vapor loops and radar mosaics show tropical depression Beryl centered across southwest AR, with its stratiform precip shield slowly lifting north over southeast MO and southern IL. The lightning activity associated with Beryl has been displaced from its center and mostly confined to western TN attim. A quick look at rainfall amounts in the past 6 hours in AR, show an impressive 2.61" fell from 00-06z at Adams Field in Little Rock. A little further north of there at 00z, the PW from the 00z SGF sounding was 1.73" which is near the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology. Latest NHC track for Beryl has the system moving into southern IL and into northern IN by 12z Wed. The 00z deterministic and ensemble runs suggest that the far southeast portions of the CWA still may receive some rain today, but the heavier QPF will to our south and east. The local probability matched mean (LPMM) of the 00z HREF has 3-5" QPF running from near St. Louis, to Decatur, IL, to Kankakee. For our area, the probability of 1" or greater rain amounts is only 30% in McDonough and Putnam counties. Needless to say, rain amounts east of the MS RVR are forecast between a quarter and a half inch or less. Regarding temps today, with an expansive cirrus shield and 850mb temps slightly cooler have lowered highs by a degree or two which is now closer to the NBM with readings topping out in the upper 70s/low 80s. Clouds will clear late tonight from west to east with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Wednesday...the upper level pattern turns northwesterly, with the large ridge remaining over the western CONUS. A strong shortwave will dive south into Iowa bringing an increase in clouds and precipitation chances. The 00z runs and the latest RAP have come in a little wetter with this system and PoPs have increased into the 30-50% range. With CAPE building through the day in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range and PWs increasing to 1.5" expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon. Shear will be the limiting factor for any severe risk, but some heavy downpours and small hail may occur in any of the stronger cells. Thursday-Saturday...additional weak waves will move through the flow bringing low diurnally driven chances of precipitation Thursday and Saturday. Highs will be a few degrees warmer each day reaching the upper 80s/low 90s by Saturday. Sunday-Monday...thermal ridge slides east into the forecast area with 850mb temps rising into the 23-26C range. This will boost temps into the 90s and combined with dewpoints in the low 70s (perhaps even higher due to mature corn crop), will push afternoon heat indices into the upper 90s and low 100s. With the storm track expected just to our north during this period, heat headlines may need to be considered for early next week if forecast trends continue. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 533 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Light rain from remnants of Beryl may impact BRL and perhaps the MLI terminal this evening and have included PROB30 groups for this mention. Winds to remain light under 6kts through the period at all sites. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Precipitation in the next few days, especially in Iowa, is expected to be dry or very light. Thus, routed flow will continue on all of our rivers. The Mississippi River is currently cresting at major levels upstream of Camanche, IA, and near crest through Illinois City. The crest may take 1 to as much as 3 days to pass. From Le Claire to Burlington, the respective crests will commence within the next 1 to 2 days. Keokuk is now forecast to crest within Moderate Flood category beginning Friday. Gregory Landing is forecast to remain near 19.5 feet through the week. Tributary Rivers: The Cedar River at Cedar Rapids crested below flood stage and will fall over the next several days. On the Cedar River at Conesville, minor flooding will continue. It will see a secondary crest near 14.4 feet Wednesday night into Thursday. The Wapsipinicon River at Dewitt is forecast to remain in moderate flooding category through late on Friday. The Iowa River at Oakville is seeing high water levels due to backwater affects from the Mississippi River. It is forecast to remain near 11.4 or 11.5 feet through midweek and then rise to near 12.1 feet late Thursday into Friday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gross LONG TERM...Gross AVIATION...Gross HYDROLOGY...Gunkel