758
FXUS63 KDVN 100531
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1231 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain in our se ending later tonight.

- Scattered thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.

- Hot and humid with heat index values around 100 Sunday and
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Late this afternoon through tonight: Remnants of "Beryl" in
southern IL will be tracking to nw OH with the northwest fringe
of the rain shield across our se counties. This rain should end
by late tonight as the system moves farther away. Isolated
thunderstorms along a boundary in our nw forecast area will also
end by sunset. Shear is quite weak and storms slow moving so
heavy rainfall expected. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.

Wednesday: Upper level trough will slide southeast around the
departing "Beryl" and trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and evening. Once again shear is quite
weak so severe weather is not expected. Highs in the lower to
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Thursday through Saturday...Waves in the northwest flow will
bring another chance of scattered showers and storms on Thursday
and again on Saturday. Highs will be in the 80s.

Sunday through early next week...Heat dome out west builds
eastward so heat headlines may be needed during this time-frame.
Highs should soar into the lower to mid 90s with dewpoints in
the lower to mid 70s. This puts heat index values 100+.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through at least 19z at all TAF
sites. An upstream shortwave dropping south over MN that is
supporting convection in eastern SD, will move south into IA
this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible as the wave moves through. Confidence in any storm
impacting the terminals is too low to include mention at the
moment, but wil continue to monitor trends and update as needed.
If a storm were to move over the terminals, brief MVFR/IFR vsbys
would be possible. Winds today will once again be light, with
all sites remaining under 10 kts.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Precipitation in the next few days, especially in Iowa, is expected
to be dry or very light. Thus, routed flow will continue on all of
our rivers.

The Mississippi River is currently cresting at major levels upstream
of Camanche, IA, and near crest through Illinois City.  The crest
may take 1 to as much as 3 days to pass. From Le Claire to
Burlington, the respective crests will commence within the next 1 to
2 days.

Keokuk is now forecast to crest within Moderate Flood category
beginning Friday.  Gregory Landing is forecast to remain near 19.5
feet through the week.

Tributary Rivers:


The Cedar River at Cedar Rapids crested below flood stage and will
fall over the next several days.

On the Cedar River at Conesville, minor flooding will continue. It
will see a secondary crest near 14.4 feet Wednesday night into
Thursday.

The Wapsipinicon River at Dewitt is forecast to remain in
moderate flooding category through late on Friday.

The Iowa River at Oakville is seeing high water levels due to
backwater affects from the Mississippi River. It is forecast to
remain near 11.4 or 11.5 feet through midweek and then rise to near
12.1 feet late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Gross
HYDROLOGY...Gunkel