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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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593 FXUS63 KDVN 141747 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing confidence on scattered storms redeveloping late this afternoon and evening. SPC has upgraded portions of the area to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms with damaging winds as the primary threat. - The heat continues for today and Monday with peak heat indices between 100 to 110 F. - Another organized round of heavy rain and severe weather is forecast Monday PM with an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe storms across most of the outlook area. - Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi River with most sites crested or cresting in the coming days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Our local area was brushed by strong convection late in the evening, affecting Stephenson co with heavy rain and gusty winds, while areas just east were greatly impacted by torrential rains. This ring of fire zone just to the northeast is forecast to be active again today, but could be a bit farther northeast than the past 24 hours. At the start of today, area wide, some very high based showers and storms could be ongoing on top of the LLJ position aimed into Wisconsin. This could bring some scattered activity for a few hours, with limited impacts to brief downpours. Otherwise, we`re closely watching the convective cluster moving through the Twin Cities this morning, as that could again brush the northeastern counties with stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise today will be hot and breezy! Like yesterday, a moist air mass, combined with peak crop evapotranspiration will help dew points rise to the 72 to 77 range, and with temperatures in the 90 to 94 range, heat indices will reach 100 to 105 in many areas. A heat advisory will be issued for all counties, from 1 PM to 8 PM. Tonight, a low chance exists that strong to severe storms can again brush our northeast is there, but most models continue to keep the action well northeast of our CWA. CAPE over 4000 will ensure any activity will be strong of it happens. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The hot weather will continue on Monday with chances for scattered showers and storms as a cold front gradually drops in from the north. Models continue to show a strong EML, but the frontal position could serve to erode that with time, especially after dark. The ample CAPE over 4000 J/KG would support strong storms, as would the increasing shear from the westerly flow aloft. For now, pops are in the 40-60% range by Monday night into Tuesday morning. The main threat for Monday night`s storms will be damaging winds, but another threat is heavy rainfall over 2 inches. We`ll advertise some heavy rain threat through the night Monday night, as the front timing has slowed, with less northwest flow establishing itself until later Tuesday. Tuesday night through the weekend ahead continue to appear cooler than normal, and extremely pleasant. Overnight lows well into the 50s are forecast on several nights, giving our air conditioning a bit of a break. ERVIN && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Main concern is for a round of scattered storms expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening. It appears the best chances for rain/thunder are at DBQ and MLI, but still potential to the west and south. Low confidence on exact timing and coverage of storms late PM, so mentioned thunder in PROB30s at CID/MLI/BRL and a TEMPO at DBQ. Later updates may have to be more aggressive with impacts in TEMPO groups as some of the storms could be severe, producing strong winds and brief IFR. After the storms move out, shallow ground fog is possible late tonight due to light winds and the humid conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A broad crest on the Mississippi River is occurring from Gladstone, IL (L/D 18) down through Gregory Landing, MO. This crest will last up to two days. Upstream of Keithsburg, IL river levels are falling. Tributary Rivers: The Cedar River near Conesville, IA fell below flood stage last evening and will continue falling over the next week. The lower Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt, IA is expected to fall below flood stage around sunrise Monday morning. The rate of fall on the river has slowed down due to locally heavy rainfall overnight. Backwater effects from the Mississippi River continue to lessen on the lower Iowa River. The Iowa River at Oakville, IA is forecast to drop just below flood stage this evening but then remain near flood stage through the remainder of this week. Very heavy rainfall occurred late Saturday afternoon and night over the middle and upper parts of the Rock River basin. Ground truth reports indicate a large swath of 2 to 5 inches of rain occurred in the basin. Thus the Rock River will begin rising with river levels approaching flood stage. There is a 50 percent probability that portions of the lower Rock River could rise above flood stage in the next 24 to 48 hours. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Uttech HYDROLOGY...08