![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
801 FXUS63 KDTX 121939 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 339 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers and storms will continue across Southeast Michigan through the early evening. These storms are not expected to be severe but may produce isolated gusty winds and small hail. - There will be several windows for thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. Severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible with these systems but with relatively low confidence on timing and location. - A period of hot and humid conditions is forecasted for Sunday and Monday with temperatures reaching near 90 and heat index in the mid 90s. - Cooler, drier weather will move in Wednesday through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... The main lobe of PV advection associated with a compact mid-level wave is departing to the east this afternoon, leaving generally weak forcing for additional showers and thunderstorms into the early evening. Any additional convection will be driven primarily by smaller scale processes along the lake breeze and any other surface heating boundaries and will continue to carry lower confidence on placement and timing. Based on the current satellite view, the agitated cumulus across the northern half of the CWA will be the favored region in the short term. Will hold on to the chance (~30%) PoP through peak heating with expectation for convection to wind down after sunset. Severe weather is not likely given MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg or less and 0-6km bulk shear around 25 to 30 kt per latest SPC mesoscale analysis, but gusty winds to 40 mph and small hail will be possible in any stronger cores. Quiet conditions expected tonight with enough boundary layer moisture to support some fog development early tomorrow morning given nearly calm surface winds. Broad surface high pressure sticks around into Saturday as a mid- level shortwave ridge induces deep layer subsidence overhead. This favors sunny skies (apart from a diurnal cu field) and a cap to limit convective chances, so will keep the forecast dry. The ridge axis will hold just to our east, so burgeoning west to southwest flow will be able to advect in a slightly warmer air mass. With the boost from diabatic heating, the result will be high temps in the mid to upper 80s. Heat index will likely approach 90 in the afternoon as dew points creep into the upper 60s. Sunday continues to present a good chance of more active weather as the ridge moves out and more energetic northwest flow begins to settle in. This pattern shift causes a warm front to move into the region Sunday morning with the overall setup suggesting a much warmer, muggier, and more unstable air mass should build in through the day. Timing of convection in this regime will carry inherent uncertainty dependent on upstream convective trends that cascade along the instability gradient, but latest guidance including hi-res runs continues to hone in on thunderstorms developing over northern Minnesota Saturday evening and tracking southeast into Lower Michigan Sunday morning. Various scenarios exist regarding timing and subsequent placement of the CAPE gradient for this window: 1) Faster progression of the MCS would likely outpace the instability resulting in a line of decaying storms/showers early Sunday morning. See 12z HRRR/ARW/NSSL. 2) Slower progression of the MCS allows CAPE to build in ahead of it which presents a higher severe threat mid- late morning. See 12z NAM3km/FV3. Considerable uncertainty follows for the rest of Sunday`s precip and temperature forecast given the moving parts with the morning convection and subsequent recovery of instability/forcing. Overall flavor of 12z guidance does hint at a relatively lower chance of later day storms which is plausible considering any robust morning MCS would likely leave a wake subsidence bubble. With 850mb temps reaching the upper teens C, potential is there for high temps around 90. Meanwhile, dew points exceed 70 degrees in virtually all NBM members so oppressive humidity looks likely to settle in. Lower forecast confidence exists on Monday as well as we continue to sit on the eastern extent of the Plains/Corn Belt warm and humid air mass beneath an active northwest upper jet pattern. Specifics will again be dictated by evolution of upstream convection but a chance (30-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms continues to be warranted given the unstable environment with ripples of PV energy traversing through the flow. 850mb temps do take a step up to 20 C on Monday which supports highs in the lower 90s with continued high humidity. A potent shortwave tracks across the Canadian Prairie on Monday before swinging across the northern Great Lakes early Tuesday. This sends a cold front across the region and commences a period of deeper troughing that allows relief from the heat and humidity Wednesday through the late week. Tuesday still looks to be another hot, muggy, and stormy day before the cold front clears the area. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s and mainly dry conditions follow as high pressure settles in. && .MARINE... High pressure area centering near the eastern Great Lakes today maintains light winds, generally out of the southeast. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have developed over Lower Michigan this afternoon with shear vectors favoring some propagation into Lake Huron through this evening. Locally higher winds/waves are possible along with pockets of hail in excess of 0.75 inches with any stronger storms. The ridge migrates further east Saturday while a secondary, and more diffuse, area of high pressure lifts toward the Tri-State area offering continued weak gradient flow and gusts AOB 15 knots. Storm-free conditions are forecast Saturday. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon as flow shifts southwesterly over Saginaw Bay and peak gusts approach 25 knots. Broader coverage of showers/storms to follow Sunday and Monday with the arrival of a warm front and approaching upper level trough from the west. Stronger storms are again possible both days which could pose a heightened risk for locally higher winds/waves and some hail. && .HYDROLOGY... Several thunderstorm complexes may move through the region Sunday through Tuesday as a hot and humid air mass builds in. The first system is becoming increasingly likely to move through Sunday morning and may produce heavy rainfall rates of over 1 inch per hour for a brief period. Confidence is low on specific timing and location at this time but given recent heavy rainfall, areas of minor flooding will be possible. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 AVIATION... A compact mid level circulation centered over the KMBS region around noon will exit to the northeast across Lake Huron this afternoon. Ongoing diurnal destabilization will support weak to moderate instability this afternoon, mainly from FNT north. Model soundings do however suggest some degree of warming in the mid levels in the wake of this short wave, most notably across metro Detroit. Model soundings in the vicinity of KFNT and KMBS this afternoon still look to be relatively uncapped. While this may result in scattered to isolated late day convection, the chances at the terminals are low and will therefore be left out of the TAF.A weak gradient and mainly clear skies tonight with ample boundary layer moisture will be supportive of radiational fog development overnight/early Sat morning. For DTW/D21 Convection...Latest model soundings show a little better mid level warming during the course of the afternoon across metro Detroit. Developing east-southeast winds are also expected to push the marine layer inland. This and early day cloud cover should limit instability. Therefore late afternoon/evening convection across the metro airspace should be rather isolated. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......KGK HYDROLOGY....TF AVIATION.....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.