908
FXUS63 KDTX 180828
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
428 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* High pressure brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to
  the region through the end of the workweek.

* Temperatures moderate over the weekend as high pressure departs,
  followed by an approaching boundary Sunday which offers low-end
  precipitation chances early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Patches of lake-modified MVFR status clear out by sunrise this
morning giving way to high pressure influence centered near the
MN/IA border. The ridge extends east into Southeast Michigan offering
relatively light northerly winds and limited gust potential (less
than 15 knots). The dry (and cool) airmass will react to diurnal
insolation leading to the development of a boundary layer and some
SCT-BKN high-based cumulus clouds (generally above 5 kft AGL). Winds
drop-off and trend near calm overnight with high confidence in
SKC.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No convection is expected through the TAF
period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

DISCUSSION...

1000-500mb geopotential height rises in the wake of the deep upper
level trough will build expansive Canadian high pressure over the
central Great Lakes region through Saturday. Forecast soundings
support strong static stability between 4.0 and 12.0 kft agl
throughout the next 3 days. Quiet and very comfortable weather is
anticipated with dewpoints in the 50s and below normal night time
temperatures.

Humidity/surface dewpoints will inch upward into the 60s by late
Saturday ahead of a relatively inert cold frontal boundary settling
southward through the northern Great Lakes into portions of northern
Lower Michigan. There are indications a secondary cold front may
eventually push southward in a similar fashion before stalling out
and reinforcing a weak baroclinic boundary early next week. A
moderation of the air mass through evapotranspiration and the
pooling of moisture along the boundary may lead to isolated to
scattered rain chances early next week.

MARINE...

Cooler and drier air today as a large Canadian high pressure builds
over the region. This expansive high will provide dry and benign
marine conditions right through the Weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KGK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SF


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