![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
346 FXUS63 KDTX 181834 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 234 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * High pressure brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to the region through the end of the workweek. * Temperatures moderate over the weekend as high pressure departs, followed by an approaching boundary Sunday which offers low-end precipitation chances early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Benign pattern in place across the central Great Lakes with the eastern edge of Midwestern surface high pressure firmly in place overhead. Thermal troughing currently working across the region has led to the generation of a healthy coverage of lake enhanced cumulus this afternoon with northerly winds holding temperatures in the lower 70s, some 10 degrees below normal. This cloud cover dissipates tonight with the loss of diurnal heating setting up a clear, cool night as lows fall into the low to mid 50s. Surface high dominates local pattern through Saturday as it drifts directly over the Great Lakes/northern Ohio Valley. Core of thermal troughing slides to our east by late tonight supporting a gradual moderation in temperatures as 850mb temps climb 1-2C each day through this weekend. Highs likewise return to right around normal in the mid 80s by the latter half of the weekend. A weak baroclinic zone very slowly sags south through the Great Lakes this weekend reaching northern lower MI by Sunday offering a slight chance (~15%) for a stray shower over the Saginaw Valley or Thumb during the afternoon. Boundary settles more into central lower MI by Monday supporting a better chance for these areas to see scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon-evening. By Tuesday this boundary looks to reside over southern lower MI as attendant moisture pooled along said boundary pushes dewpoints well into the mid 60s supporting scattered showers/storms across the area. && .MARINE... Expansive high pressure over the Midwest into the Great Lakes region will lead to light winds (under 20 knots) right into early next week. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms does not look to arrive until Tuesday, with a low chance continuing through Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 AVIATION... Northerly flow today has advected moisture from Lake Huron into southeast Michigan and helped sustain a scattered to broken cumulus cloud deck this morning. Ceilings look to be at or around 5000 feet before clouds dissipate this evening leaving clear skies. Winds light and variable overnight before solidifying into westerly flow tomorrow. Sky conditions tomorrow look to be similar to today. No showers or storms are expected and a diurnal cumulus deck is expected to develop around 4000 feet. For DTW/D21 Convection...No convection is expected through the TAF period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today. Low for tomorrow afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......sf AVIATION.....BC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.