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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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430 FXUS63 KDMX 081727 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated/Scattered showers and storms during the afternoon timeframe over the next several days. - Warming increases by late in the work week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Showers and storms have mostly exited the forecast area early this morning as the convective complex from last evening passed east through the state. Otherwise, some clearing has spread in central Iowa with light winds and ample low level moisture in the wake of the storms. This is leading to patchy fog development over the past hour or so and this is likely to continue through sunrise before daytime heating ends the threat. Otherwise, the upper trof axis crosses the state today with partial sunshine for much of the day. Isolated showers are expected by the afternoon across the northern half of the state with weak lift and cool mid level temperatures near the trof axis. This activity should quickly die off toward sunset with clear skies and light winds once again tonight. Tuesday appears to be a similar to today with slightly warmer temperatures and the threat of a few showers in the north. By Wednesday, the remnants of Beryl lift north across Indiana into the lower Great Lakes area by evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave drops down on the backside of the trof towards Iowa during the day. Increasing lift is expected by afternoon along with arriving with peak heating. This combination should lead to scattered showers and storms on Wednesday afternoon across much of central Iowa. GFS remains more progressive into Thursday with this system while the Euro keeps this upper system across the state along with the threat of additional showers. Both models indicate increasing heights by late this week into the weekend as the western ridge builds toward the Plains. This is indicative of warmer air pushing back into the state by Friday and into the weekend. Highs are expected to return to the 90s and along with increasing evapotranspiration from the maturing crops, increasingly uncomfortable conditions are expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail across the area through the period. FEW/SCT ceilings around 3kft may be experienced, but rise/mix higher over the next few hours. Light W/NW winds giving way to light variable overnight. A few isolated showers/thunder may be seen north this afternoon into evening, but confidence did not warrant mentions at KFOD/KMCW/KALO at this time. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cogil AVIATION...Curtis