Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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079 FXUS63 KDMX 090420 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1120 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Low-end chances for a few showers/storms north afternoon/evening today and Tuesday. * More widespread showers/storm activity likely Wednesday. * Precipitation chances subside, heat builds in through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Conditions across the area early this afternoon remain predominantly quiet with light surface flow and blossoming cumulus fields. While the bulk of the large scale lift has begun to shift eastward as the upper trough continues to pivot through, a few weak showers and isolated thunder remain expected across northern. This activity, should remain primarily across the northern 3-4 tiers of counties where best profiles and weak large scale lift best align. Forecast soundings are not substantially different in areas south of northern Iowa and recent hi-res runs have hinted at isolated activity into central and even southern Iowa early this evening, but have held off on expanding PoPs that far for the time being. Nothing more than brief moderate rainfall and occasional lightning. This will largely rinse/repeat Tuesday afternoon with similar profiles and transient weak lift sliding in afternoon/evening. Beryl remnants remain expected to pass harmlessly to the southeast of the state Tuesday/Wednesday, keeping bulk of precipitation across Missouri and Illinois. The primary effect locally will be continued weak surface and flow aloft during this time frame, hence some of the weak/isolated shower/thunder mentioned previously. By Wednesday, synoptic suites remain consistent in dropping a shortwave through the N/NW large scale flow and through the state and more widespread shower/thunder areal coverage vs today and Tuesday. With continued weak flow through the column, activity will remain scattered/unorganized and pulsey in nature, providing brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and lightning. Rounding out the workweek and into the weekend, western CONUS ridge begins to encroach into the central CONUS, allowing warmer to hot temperatures to build into the region. Depictions remain pretty consistent across the suites into/through the weekend with 20s deg C 850mb temps building in, yielding highs returning to the 90s deg F in many areas along with heat index values around/into the lower 100s deg F. Into next week, uncertainty in the evolution of the ridge/trough pattern amplify, but some semblance of warmer than present conditions are favored. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail across the area through the period. FEW/SCT ceilings around 3kft may be experienced, but rise/mix higher over the next few hours. Light W/NW winds giving way to light variable overnight. A few isolated showers/thunder may be seen north this afternoon into evening, but confidence did not warrant mentions at KFOD/KMCW/KALO at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Primarily VFR conditions will prevail through the night. With light winds, recent rainfall, and clear skies across the north, it`s possible some patchy fog may develop. Exact location and magnitude is uncertain, but KFOD and KMCW are the most likely locations, so have included a few hours of VFR/MVFR visibilities later this morning. Otherwise, minimal impacts to aviation through tomorrow. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Dodson