487
FXUS63 KDMX 090914
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
414 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler southeast today with a few isolated storms north.

- Scattered storms late tonight through Wednesday evening.

- Warmer weather returns by the weekend and especially for
  Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Generally quiet weather across Iowa early this morning with
light winds and a few patches of fog. The fog should be mostly
confined to river valleys and low areas and not become
widespread. The remnants of Hurricane Beryl is the main feature
on the weather map as it is now lifting into Arkansas. High
level cloudiness from the system is streaming well north and
ahead of the system including high level cloudiness passing over
the southeast half of Iowa. The remnants of Beryl will continue
to lift northeast today and will be over southern Illinois by
late this afternoon. The main impacts for the forecast area will
be the clouds over the southeast that will result in
temperatures being a bit cooler across that area. There is a low
chance for a few showers though there will be dry air to
overcome below 500 mb. Some instability may occur over northern
Iowa where more sunshine occurs which may result in a few
isolated showers or storms but without not expecting much more
than that without a good forcing mechanism.

Stronger forcing will be descending south and on the backside of
Beryl and will move into the area later tonight and into the day
Wednesday. This will bring increasing chances for showers and
storms. MLCAPE values could reach 1500 J/kg by Wednesday afternoon
but low level and deep layer shear will be low and the overall
severe weather threat is low. The proper ingredients may be
available for a few landspout funnels though with a weak/slow moving
boundary in place in addition to sufficient low level instability
and vorticity with good stretching potential. The showers/storms may
linger into the evening before ending from north to south.

Iowa will remain in the upper level northwest from the long wave
trough into Thursday. A few afternoon showers and storms may occur,
over mainly eastern Iowa though the sounding profiles are drier.
Shear again will be nearly no existent. Friday and into early next
week will feature a transition to more westerly upper flow while an
upper high is situated near the four corners region. This flow will
lead to warmer air returning to Iowa with the warmest temperatures
arriving Sunday and into Monday. High temperatures in the upper 80s
to mid 90s are expected during that timeframe. On a side note, for
anyone wanting more wind to help clear our the summer time bug fest
across Iowa, you will be disappointed in the expected winds over the
next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Primarily VFR conditions will prevail through the night. With
light winds, recent rainfall, and clear skies across the north,
it`s possible some patchy fog may develop. Exact location and
magnitude is uncertain, but KFOD and KMCW are the most likely
locations, so have included a few hours of VFR/MVFR visibilities
later this morning. Otherwise, minimal impacts to aviation
through tomorrow.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Dodson