523
FXUS63 KDMX 081150
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
650 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated/Scattered showers and storms during the afternoon
  timeframe over the next several days.

- Warming increases by late in the work week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Showers and storms have mostly exited the forecast area early this
morning as the convective complex from last evening passed east
through the state.  Otherwise, some clearing has spread in central
Iowa with light winds and ample low level moisture in the wake of
the storms.  This is leading to patchy fog development over the past
hour or so and this is likely to continue through sunrise before
daytime heating ends the threat.  Otherwise, the upper trof axis
crosses the state today with partial sunshine for much of the day.
Isolated showers are expected by the afternoon across the northern
half of the state with weak lift and cool mid level temperatures
near the trof axis.  This activity should quickly die off toward
sunset with clear skies and light winds once again tonight. Tuesday
appears to be a similar to today with slightly warmer temperatures
and the threat of a few showers in the north.

By Wednesday, the remnants of Beryl lift north across Indiana into
the lower Great Lakes area by evening.  Meanwhile, a shortwave drops
down on the backside of the trof towards Iowa during the day.
Increasing lift is expected by afternoon along with arriving with
peak heating.  This combination should lead to scattered showers and
storms on Wednesday afternoon across much of central Iowa.  GFS
remains more progressive into Thursday with this system while the
Euro keeps this upper system across the state along with the threat
of additional showers.

Both models indicate increasing heights by late this week into the
weekend as the western ridge builds toward the Plains.  This is
indicative of warmer air pushing back into the state by Friday and
into the weekend.  Highs are expected to return to the 90s and along
with increasing evapotranspiration from the maturing crops,
increasingly uncomfortable conditions are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions for much of the period with light southwest to
west winds today becoming light northwest tonight. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms north this afternoon to produce
isolated pockets of MVFR to IFR conditions in and around any
shower or storm.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil