721
FXUS63 KDMX 061141
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
641 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet through this morning. Storm chances return late this
  afternoon into tonight. Few stronger storms possible along and
  west of I35 along with localized heavy rain.

- Additional chances for showers and isolated storms persist
  into early next week with temperatures in the upper 70s to
  80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The scattered shower activity that persisted into the early evening
quickly dissipated by midnight with quiet conditions early this
morning.  Skies are mostly clear across the state currently with
light winds and cool temperatures for early July.  These tranquil
conditions extend into this morning ahead of a shortwave dropping
southeast through the Dakotas.  As this wave nears Iowa, warm
advection begins to increase by this afternoon along with a push of
theta-e advection.  Increasing lift and moisture lead to clouds
spreading into the state during the afternoon with some scattered
showers and storms by late afternoon across the west.  The most
robust convection is expected west of Iowa by late afternoon into
the evening closer to the stronger instability axis.  This activity
is expected to slide east into Iowa this evening on the nose of the
low level jet.  While the storms may be strong to severe at time,
the threat of severe weather decreases into Iowa as the overall
instability and shear weaken.  Locally heavy rain is also possible
with PWATS of 1.25-1.5" into southern Iowa tonight on the nose of
the best moisture transport where a local amount of 2+" may occur.
Fortunately, crops are maturing which helps cut down on the overall
flood/flash flood threat.

Another shortwave drops into the Midwest on Sunday within the
broader trof over the central United States.  This keeps the threat
of scattered showers and isolated storms into Sunday and Sunday
night as another round of forcing passes through the state.  This
round is mainly a rain threat as the shear profile remains
relatively weak, thus limiting the severe potential.  The trof axis
remains just west of the state into Monday with scattered showers
and a few storms once again, primarily during the peak heating hours
with something similar into Tuesday but a bit more isolated as the
upper low gradually departs.

The pattern into next week remains somewhat stagnant due to the
influence of Hurricane Beryl passing through the western Gulf and
eventually recurving back into the Ohio River Valley by midweek.
Iowa remains between the remnants of Beryl and a building ridge
across the western United States.  In general, this keeps cooler air
in Iowa with readings remaining at or below normal for much of the
week.  However, after the passage of Beryl, the ridge gradually
moves to the east with warmer temperatures arriving into the Midwest
toward the end of the 7 day period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Mostly VFR conditions this morning although patchy fog will be
around to start the period. The fog quickly dissipates this
morning with increasing mid level clouds. Scattered showers and
a thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon in west Iowa
spreading east overnight with MVFR to local IFR conditions in
and around the rain area. Winds remain light today becoming
south with time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Not a whole lot of change with regards to the river flooding
with continued gradual improvement as stages continue their slow
fall. There may be some localized bumps over the next couple of
days with the convection, but widespread renewed river flooding
is not forecast at this point. The heaviest rainfall during this
time is expected in southern Iowa tonight where moisture
transport is focused on the nose of the low level jet. PWATS
increase to around 1.5" or so with decent warm cloud depth
leading to efficient rainfall. Localized 2+" amounts are
possible but as mentioned above, the maturing crops will help
slow down the runoff and limit the overall potential.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil
HYDROLOGY...Cogil