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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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396 FXUS63 KDMX 060901 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 401 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet through this morning. Storm chances return late this afternoon into tonight. Few stronger storms possible along and west of I35 along with localized heavy rain. - Additional chances for showers and isolated storms persist into early next week with temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The scattered shower activity that persisted into the early evening quickly dissipated by midnight with quiet conditions early this morning. Skies are mostly clear across the state currently with light winds and cool temperatures for early July. These tranquil conditions extend into this morning ahead of a shortwave dropping southeast through the Dakotas. As this wave nears Iowa, warm advection begins to increase by this afternoon along with a push of theta-e advection. Increasing lift and moisture lead to clouds spreading into the state during the afternoon with some scattered showers and storms by late afternoon across the west. The most robust convection is expected west of Iowa by late afternoon into the evening closer to the stronger instability axis. This activity is expected to slide east into Iowa this evening on the nose of the low level jet. While the storms may be strong to severe at time, the threat of severe weather decreases into Iowa as the overall instability and shear weaken. Locally heavy rain is also possible with PWATS of 1.25-1.5" into southern Iowa tonight on the nose of the best moisture transport where a local amount of 2+" may occur. Fortunately, crops are maturing which helps cut down on the overall flood/flash flood threat. Another shortwave drops into the Midwest on Sunday within the broader trof over the central United States. This keeps the threat of scattered showers and isolated storms into Sunday and Sunday night as another round of forcing passes through the state. This round is mainly a rain threat as the shear profile remains relatively weak, thus limiting the severe potential. The trof axis remains just west of the state into Monday with scattered showers and a few storms once again, primarily during the peak heating hours with something similar into Tuesday but a bit more isolated as the upper low gradually departs. The pattern into next week remains somewhat stagnant due to the influence of Hurricane Beryl passing through the western Gulf and eventually recurving back into the Ohio River Valley by midweek. Iowa remains between the remnants of Beryl and a building ridge across the western United States. In general, this keeps cooler air in Iowa with readings remaining at or below normal for much of the week. However, after the passage of Beryl, the ridge gradually moves to the east with warmer temperatures arriving into the Midwest toward the end of the 7 day period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Any fog development over north central Iowa is expected to be localized with any direct impact to TAF sites too uncertain to include a BR mention. Therefore, VFR conditions are shown to prevail through the period. There may be some diurnal cumulus development around midday Saturday, but this may be limited as clouds arrive ahead of storms approaching from the west late in the afternoon. These storms should arrive into central Iowa after 0z Sunday with the highest chances of any terminal impact being DSM or OTM. However, have not included any lines for this to avoid unnecessary duration of thunder mention since the timing ranges from early evening to late evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Not a whole lot of change with regards to the river flooding with continued gradual improvement as stages continue their slow fall. There may be some localized bumps over the next couple of days with the convection, but widespread renewed river flooding is not forecast at this point. The heaviest rainfall during this time is expected in southern Iowa tonight where moisture transport is focused on the nose of the low level jet. PWATS increase to around 1.5" or so with decent warm cloud depth leading to efficient rainfall. Localized 2+" amounts are possible but as mentioned above, the maturing crops will help slow down the runoff and limit the overall potential. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cogil AVIATION...Ansorge HYDROLOGY...Cogil