823
FXUS63 KDLH 200535
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1235 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms over north central MN this afternoon
  will taper off after sunset.

- A cold front dropping south out of Ontario will bring showers
  and a few storms across the Northland on Saturday

- High temps for this weekend will be in the 70s and low 80s.

- Additional rain chances (20-40%) persist through early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Current Conditions/Afternoon:

Surface high pressure is departing today with southerly return
flow returning to the region. Warm air advection and moisture
returns along our west have seen PWATs increase to 1 - 1.2
inches this afternoon. Satellite has shown widespread cumulus
with radar signals still mostly quiet. The one exception is a
few towers going up in Koochiching where the environment has
become free of inhibition. Overall, there still looks to be some
capping from the warm nose nudging its way into the Northland
this afternoon. CAMs have really backed off of the overall
activity this afternoon. We did however decide to keep some PoPs
going as a small MCV can be seen in the satellite dipping
southwest out of Ontario. This could still help to provide some
forcing and shear for development.

Tonight:

Overnight, we will see lows drop into the lower 60s with the
chance for some patchy fog to develop. Fog will not linger long
after sunrise.

Saturday:

A cold front will be dropping south out of Ontario Saturday
morning and slowly advancing south through the day. Some showers
are to be expected with this boundary. Storms will also be
possible and increase in likelihood through the afternoon due to
building instability from daytime heating. MLCAPEs around 1000
J/kg will be possible but lack of overall shear will keep the
storms from escalating to severe status.

Hazy Skies:

Another item to note will be the hazy skies from the wildfires
in northern Saskatchewan. The HRRR smoke model`s vertically
integrated smoke stays across the Northland through most of the
weekend. The model does also hint that some smoke could make it
to the surface with the passage of the cold front but as has
been noted by the MPCA this model has been a bit over aggressive
as of late so confidence is not high enough to warrant any Air
Quality Alerts at this time.

Sunday - Early Next Week:

By Sunday the aforementioned cold front stalls a bit across
central MN and could still bring some PoPs across our southern
tier of counties. The active weather persists to start the work
week. A surface low is expected to be near the International
Border Monday afternoon drawing in PWATs of around an inch.
Additional forcing from some embedded shortwaves in the flow
will help to promote some rain chances in the afternoon
(20-40%). Depiction of how this low progresses is still
contested among the suite of 12Z guidance but the broad flow
aloft remains cyclonic promoting additional chances for rain and
a few storms on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions may deteriorate early this morning with some patchy
fog in places. Any fog should burn off quickly after sunrise, with
VFR conditions for much of the rest of the period. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible through the day, which may lead to
briefly reduced visibilities due to rain. Showers taper off into the
evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Southwest winds will weaken this evening. Saturday a cold front will
be dropping south out of Ontario with winds turning to out of the
north and northeast. Some showers and storms will accompany this
frontal boundary. We may also see some localized increase wind
speeds at the head of the Lake for Saturday afternoon due to
northeast winds funneling. At the moment it does not appear the an
advisory will be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Britt