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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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471 FXUS63 KDLH 161843 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers (20-40% chance) this afternoon across the Arrowhead - Quiet weather for the next several days with a return to more seasonable temperatures && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 For this afternoon scattered popcorn showers with maybe a rumble of thunder or two can be expected. This is due in large part to the spinning low over Canada and its associated cold air aloft. While there are steep low level lapse rates (7-9 C/km), the mid level lapse rates are non existent and CAPE values are quite low, below 500j/kg. This suggests that any storms that do form would likely remain elevated and short lived. These popcorn storms should dissipate towards sunset once we lose the daytime heating. For this evening, expect cooler and quieter weather with persistent northwest flow once the system passes to the east. This northwest flow will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s area wide, the exception being near the immediate lakeshore where temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 50s due to a warmer lake this time of year. Wednesday will definitely feel cooler compared to what we have experienced recently with temperatures hovering right around 70 degrees for most locations. Speaking of weather for once there is not too much to talk about, which for our area is a good thing! High pressure will dominate overhead for the next several days resulting in plentiful, abundant sunshine. In fact, Thursday looks to be the nicest day with seasonable temperatures around 80 degrees, light winds and low humidity. Muggy and warmer conditions (low to mid 80s for highs) look to make a return by Friday night and stick around through at least next Tuesday due to a return to southwest flow which brings with it more moisture and warmer temperatures. There are some signals that a weak system may graze the area on Saturday as the broader ridging pattern over us starts to break down, however details are still quiet uncertain this far out. Additionally, chances for rain and storms look to ramp up as we get into early next week due to several impulses that look to traverse across the area. So get out and enjoy the next several days before our more active weather resumes. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Widely VFR conditions through the forecast period. Diurnally driven cumulus has begun to populate across the region which may incite some showers and an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. Some of the CAMs suggest a weak line of showers may persist (30%) into the early evening hours before tapering off. High pressure moves in tomorrow with no precipitation currently expected with fair weather cumulus popping in the afternoon. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Scattered rain showers this afternoon will taper off later this evening. Northwest winds this evening with a few gusts up to 20 kts at times. High pressure settles in tomorrow and will allow for some quiet days to round out the work week. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJM AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt