![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
184 FXUS63 KDLH 190909 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 409 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly quiet weather today with highs in the low 80s. A 20% chance for showers/storms in north-central Minnesota this afternoon and evening. - Periodic chances for showers and storms will persist through Tuesday with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Some mostly clear to partly cloudy skies out there this morning along with some patchy fog, which will lift just after sunrise. Sunshine is expected to be prevalent through today with warmer highs in the low 80s for most places. As early as this afternoon, we may see a few showers and possibly a storm or two pop up (15-25% chance). This will be due to an upper level trough moving through along with southwesterly warm air advection aloft. The current air mass is rather dry, but it will saturate more this afternoon with PWATs approaching 1" to 1.5". A nose of warm air aloft may cap surface-based instability for most places. Therefore, rain chances have somewhat decreased for this afternoon and will be limited mainly to north-central Minnesota. If a storm or two do pop up, they are not expected to be severe with limited shear aloft, but they could produce some brief heavy rain. Going into tonight, we watch for the arrival of a backdoor cold front from Ontario. This will keep the shower/storm chances (~20%) around the Borderland. This backdoor cold front will continue south into central Minnesota / northwest Wisconsin by Saturday afternoon, and this will serve as a lifting mechanism for convection coupled with diurnal heating. As such, we can expect an increase in shower/storm activity Saturday afternoon (50-65% chance). PWATs around 1.25" will likely be more realized on Saturday with better forcing from the cold front, and as such, there will be better chances to squeeze out a few tenths of an inch of rain for many areas from afternoon showers and storms. Similar to Friday, weak shear will keep these storms pretty vertically stacked, so strong storms are unlikely. But, they will certainly be capable of producing heavy rain and perhaps some gusty winds. While most places can expect up to a few tenths of an inch of rain, some localized amounts approaching three quarters of an inch or so can`t be ruled out. The showers and storms will gradually diminish in the evening. Otherwise, between the storms, sunshine is expected with warm high temperatures in the low 80s. While confidence is not high at this time, the HRRR does suggest that there could be a bit of elevated haze due to wildfire smoke in Canada that could pass through the region Saturday into Saturday evening. Similar weather is expected on Sunday, except that rain chances will be displaced further south as the cold front progresses south. Parts of east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin may see a 20-30% chance for showers/storms while areas north remain dry. A wavy pattern aloft on Monday will keep some small chances for diurnal showers/storms around, but again, strong storms are not expected. Tuesday may bring perhaps some slightly more organized shower/storm activity as another upper level trough swings through, this time with some more shear aloft (0-6 km shear around 30 kt) and some more appreciable SBCAPE around or perhaps above 1000 J/kg for some areas. Some stronger storms may be possible, but it`s too early to be confident about any details beyond that. A cold front may pass through Tuesday going into Wednesday, and this may bring an end to most rain chances on Wednesday and relatively cooler highs back into the 70s on both days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR conditions through the period for the most part. A <10% chance for fog at HYR/HIB through sunrise with light winds and mostly clear skies, but with dry air in place, confidence is not high that it will actually develop. We will have warm air advection and an upper level trough moving in from the west today, and this may be just enough to kick off a few showers or storms in northeast Minnesota that may affect BRD/INL in the afternoon and evening (15-30% chance). Not anticipating any long-duration visibility restrictions if a shower/storm passes over a terminal, but MVFR visibility could be possible briefly. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Southwesterly winds will strengthen today, gusting no higher than 20 kt for most places, but to 25 kt with waves 1-3 ft around Grand Portage. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this afternoon and early evening. There is a smaller chance (30%) that gusts could be a little stronger than 20 kt between Taconite Harbor and Grand Marais, but confidence is higher that gusts will top out around 20 kt. Winds decrease tonight and gradually shift in direction Saturday morning to northeasterly as a backdoor cold front passes through. Winds strengthen to around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt Saturday afternoon. There will be periodic chances for showers and storms on Saturday as the front passes through. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...JDS MARINE...JDS