471
FXUS63 KDLH 161843
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
143 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers (20-40% chance) this
  afternoon across the Arrowhead

- Quiet weather for the next several days with a return to more
  seasonable temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For this afternoon scattered popcorn showers with maybe a
rumble of thunder or two can be expected. This is due in large
part to the spinning low over Canada and its associated cold air
aloft. While there are steep low level lapse rates (7-9 C/km),
the mid level lapse rates are non existent and CAPE values are
quite low, below 500j/kg. This suggests that any storms that do
form would likely remain elevated and short lived. These popcorn
storms should dissipate towards sunset once we lose the daytime
heating.

For this evening, expect cooler and quieter weather with persistent
northwest flow once the system passes to the east. This northwest
flow will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s
area wide, the exception being near the immediate lakeshore where
temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 50s due to a warmer
lake this time of year. Wednesday will definitely feel cooler
compared to what we have experienced recently with temperatures
hovering right around 70 degrees for most locations.

Speaking of weather for once there is not too much to talk about,
which for our area is a good thing! High pressure will dominate
overhead for the next several days resulting in plentiful, abundant
sunshine. In fact, Thursday looks to be the nicest day with
seasonable temperatures around 80 degrees, light winds and low
humidity. Muggy and warmer conditions (low to mid 80s for highs)
look to make a return by Friday night and stick around through at
least next Tuesday due to a return to southwest flow which brings
with it more moisture and warmer temperatures. There are some
signals that a weak system may graze the area on Saturday as the
broader ridging pattern over us starts to break down, however
details are still quiet uncertain this far out. Additionally,
chances for rain and storms look to ramp up as we get into early
next week due to several impulses that look to traverse across the
area. So get out and enjoy the next several days before our more
active weather resumes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Widely VFR conditions through the forecast period. Diurnally driven
cumulus has begun to populate across the region which may incite
some showers and an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. Some of
the CAMs suggest a weak line of showers may persist (30%) into the
early evening hours before tapering off. High pressure moves in
tomorrow with no precipitation currently expected with fair weather
cumulus popping in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered rain showers this afternoon will taper off later this
evening. Northwest winds this evening with a few gusts up to 20
kts at times. High pressure settles in tomorrow and will allow
for some quiet days to round out the work week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJM
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt