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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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305 FXUS63 KDLH 132314 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 614 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and storms this afternoon. Some storms may be strong but the better chances for severe weather will be this evening - A line of storms is expected to form this evening and advance SE out of Manitoba and cross the Northland through the overnight hours. Primary threat will be damaging winds but large hail and a few tornadoes can`t be ruled out. - Additional storm chances return late Sunday night through Monday with some storms being strong to severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Challenging forecast this afternoon with poor model guidance across the board. There are two sectors of concern this afternoon. The first sector is over NW WI which has the least potential to produce additional strong to severe storms. The current wave is exiting into the UP and NE WI. There is some additional development moving up central WI but extensive cloud cover has not allowed much recovery from the morning storms. The second area of concern is along the Iron Range. A line of storms which initially began near the Red Lakes have slowly been moving east through the late morning hours. This line is entering an uncapped environment helping to sustain the storms. Wind shear is a bit lacking with speeds around 20 kts. Current radar signatures suggest some small hail possible but storms are slow moving and vertically stacked. Severe threat remains low with this line of activity into the afternoon and early evening hours. This evening a weak cold front is expected to drop down from SE Manitoba and ignite another round of storms. CAMs currently show varying flavors in terms of timing and location of this line, plus it is a little concerning that these CAMs have failed to capture this afternoons convection, further lowering confidence. However, looking at satellite we can see ample amounts of clearing behind the line of storms in northern MN and surface observations are reading highs in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the 70s. Suffice to say the atmosphere is recovering fairly fast from the passing convection. As of writing this forecast discussion the aforementioned boundary can be seen firing some supercells in southern Manitoba. It is also worth noting that a lingering boundary can be seen north of the Grand Forks radar. The latest 18Z run of the NAMNEST is suggesting a slightly different flavor of convection with some initiation off this boundary leading to an earlier start time for storms in our area. It does still carry the main boundary through this evening as well but the environment may be a bit exhausted by the first wave should storms begin to develop off the boundary in ND. Overall, the evening convection will carry the better chance for severe storms. A shortwave passing over the region will see mid level lapse rates increase to 8C/km and bulk shear values in excess of 40 kts. With the QLCS set up the primary threat will be damaging winds of 70 mph. Secondary threat of hail of 1" in diameter and a few tornadoes remain possible. If this line of storms does manage to form it should advance through the region at a fairly good clip. Activity is expected to taper off around midnight. The weak cold front propagating the aforementioned storms will stall out south of our CWA Sunday with high pressure filling in behind. Opted to bump temperatures down a bit across northern MN with the cooler air mass nearby. That being said we will still be looking at highs in the 80s across northern MN and upper 80s for NW WI. Some diurnal cumulus will be possible but the subsidence in the region should prohibit storm activity. Not quite done with the active weather just yet. Sunday night another shortwave crosses the Northern Plains with storms entering from the west. The convective parameter space looks supportive of severe weather chances once again through at least Monday morning with the primary threat being damaging winds and secondary threat being large hail. Activity may continue through Monday as a surface low rides along the International Border. There still remains some disagreement with this features placement and timing. Severe weather chances taper off by Tuesday but we will maintain some rain chances. An upper level low will be parked over Ontario allowing for cyclonic flow aloft and likely diurnal showers with isolated storms. High pressure settles in for Wednesday and Thursday allowing for a break in the active weather. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Strong thunderstorms are forming in northwest Minnesota and are expected to slowly move eastward into north-central Minnesota from 02-03Z this evening. Large hail and wind gusts to 55 knots are the primary hazards this evening, most likely near BRD and INL from 02-05Z this evening. High-res model guidance has this convection mainly splitting around HIB and DLH, but kept in PROB30s for now as isolated strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at any terminals through 09Z this morning. The eventual storms form into a complex expected to move into inland northwest Wisconsin from 06-08Z tonight. Southwest winds shift to northwesterly around 10 knots Sunday daytime. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Southwest winds are streaming across the Lake this afternoon and are expected to turn to out of the northwest later tonight with the passage of a line of storms. This line of storms may bring damaging winds and some large hail. Look for this line to exit the Lake after midnight. Additional storm chances will return Sunday night through Monday, these storms will also have the potential to be severe. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A Flood Advisory continues across portions of the Rainy River Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far west as the Rainy Lake outlet. This advisory has now been extended through Monday afternoon. Lingering high water from rains in June continue across the Rainy River Basin. The Vermilion River continues to fall. Lake levels on Lac La Croix and Crane Lake have crested, but are still elevated and slow to fall. Lake Namakan looks like it is now cresting as of Friday morning. All this high water continues to lead to slowing rises on downstream lakes, notably Kabetogama (Kab) lake where minor flooding continues, and on Rainy Lake where levels are still exceeding the rule curve. Kab and Rainy Lake crests should occur this weekend. This could bring Nam/Kab just under 1120 feet with a peak level somewhat similar to the high water during the summer of 2014. This is still 2 feet or more below the high water levels of Spring 2022 - we are nowhere close to that level of flooding and extreme rises to that point are currently not expected. As is usual for this basin, water will move slowly and recessions will happen at glacial speeds with some flavor of high water possibly continuing through the month. However, peak should happen soon, based on latest observations. Additional rainfall may cause brief rises in tributaries and extend the period of high water in core lakes depending on where and how much rain falls with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Monday. Boaters should expect high water, potentially hidden underwater hazards (including submerged docks), and strong currents in constricted areas. Some of the storms this weekend could be strong to severe, which could lead to erratic gusts out of thunderstorms and impact wave heights, as well. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...NLy MARINE...Britt HYDROLOGY...Rothstein