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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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341 FXUS63 KDLH 140946 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 446 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional storm chances return late tonight through Monday with some storms being strong to severe. - Trending cooler Tuesday with a gradual warmup late this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 446 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Early this morning a broad low-amplitude upper level trough was over the Canadian Prairies and the northern Plains. Two MCSes were located over the north-central CONUS, one over southern Wisconsin and a second over South Dakota. A cold front at the surface stretched from far northern Ontario south-southwest into north-central Minnesota to a weak surface low over southwest Minnesota as of 09Z. The cold front then extended westward across southern South Dakota. Surface high pressure was centered over north-central North Dakota. High clouds from the two MCSes should dissipate over the next few hours as those storms weaken and move farther from the Northland leaving mostly clear skies in place as the high pressure area propagates southeastward into southern Minnesota by late afternoon. Altogether a quieter day is on tap across the Northland with cooler temperatures near the international border into central Minnesota in the wake of the cold front. Farther southeast in northwest Wisconsin and portions of the I-35 corridor, temperatures will likely be warmer than yesterday due to mostly sunny skies and a lack of storms. The front is forecast to stall over southern Minnesota to northeast Wisconsin and central Upper Michigan today with the western periphery lifting north as a warm front into northern South Dakota and southwest North Dakota. Meanwhile a second cold front will propagate southeastward from the northern Canadian Prairies to near the International Border by late this evening. There will be two areas favored for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening over the Dakotas and southern Canadian Prairies. Global and regional models depict possibly two MCSes developing once again tonight. Focusing on the storm chances along the second cold front over southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba this evening, the storms which develop in that area may propagate into the Northland early Monday morning. The northern cold front will sag southeastward behind the eastern MCS. Shower and storm chances will accompany the front Monday morning into the afternoon as the front crosses the Northland. High temps on Monday will reach the middle 70s north and the low 80s south. Locally heavy rainfall is possible from the thunderstorms. High pressure builds into the region on Tuesday will will persist into next weekend. This will provide a period of cooler temperatures initially (in the wake of the second cold front) with a gradual warming trend late this week. Wednesday appears to be the coolest with highs around 70 in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin to the middle 70s in central and north- central MN. Those temperatures are 6 to 8 degrees below normal, toward the cooler edge of the expected temperature range for mid-July. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The risk of widespread storms has ended. A few isolated storms are still possible early this morning. Latest high-resolution model guidance isn`t handling existing storms from CYQT to KCKC nor the convection in east-central MN and western WI, so confidence in additional storms is low. HYR probably has the greatest risk of an additional storm. Otherwise the main concern will be whether skies can clear allowing fog to develop. HYR is an exception at the moment with 1/2sm fog reported between 05Z and 06Z. Think the fog will fluctuate at that site until the arrival of an outflow boundary near I-35 as of 06Z. That will be around 10Z. Until then, expect variable visibility. HIB is the other location to watch for possible fog. After sunrise, expect VFR conditions. There will be another chance of thunderstorms Monday morning, possibly as early as 15.10Z at INL. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 446 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A cold front will push eastward across western Lake Superior this morning. Offshore winds early this morning turn southwesterly away from the shoreline. Light southwest winds of 3 to 12 knots are forecast today and tonight. There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday morning, a few of which may be strong. Another cold front will move southeast over the region Monday afternoon. Winds are forecast to veer northwest behind the second front. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A Flood Advisory continues across portions of the Rainy River Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far west as the Rainy Lake outlet. This advisory has now been extended through Monday afternoon. Lingering high water from rains in June continue across the Rainy River Basin. The Vermilion River continues to fall. Lake levels on Lac La Croix and Crane Lake have crested, but are still elevated and slow to fall. Lake Namakan looks like it is now cresting as of Friday morning. All this high water continues to lead to slowing rises on downstream lakes, notably Kabetogama (Kab) lake where minor flooding continues, and on Rainy Lake where levels are still exceeding the rule curve. Kab and Rainy Lake crests should occur this weekend. This could bring Nam/Kab just under 1120 feet with a peak level somewhat similar to the high water during the summer of 2014. This is still 2 feet or more below the high water levels of Spring 2022 - we are nowhere close to that level of flooding and extreme rises to that point are currently not expected. As is usual for this basin, water will move slowly and recessions will happen at glacial speeds with some flavor of high water possibly continuing through the month. However, peak should happen soon, based on latest observations. Additional rainfall may cause brief rises in tributaries and extend the period of high water in core lakes depending on where and how much rain falls with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Monday. Boaters should expect high water, potentially hidden underwater hazards (including submerged docks), and strong currents in constricted areas. Some of the storms this weekend could be strong to severe, which could lead to erratic gusts out of thunderstorms and impact wave heights, as well. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Huyck HYDROLOGY...Rothstein