698
FXUS63 KDLH 141746
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional storm chances return late tonight through Monday
  with some storms being strong to severe.

- Trending cooler Tuesday with a gradual warmup late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Early this morning a broad low-amplitude upper level trough was
over the Canadian Prairies and the northern Plains. Two MCSes
were located over the north-central CONUS, one over southern
Wisconsin and a second over South Dakota. A cold front at the
surface stretched from far northern Ontario south-southwest into
north-central Minnesota to a weak surface low over southwest
Minnesota as of 09Z. The cold front then extended westward
across southern South Dakota. Surface high pressure was centered
over north-central North Dakota.

High clouds from the two MCSes should dissipate over the next
few hours as those storms weaken and move farther from the
Northland leaving mostly clear skies in place as the high
pressure area propagates southeastward into southern Minnesota
by late afternoon. Altogether a quieter day is on tap across the
Northland with cooler temperatures near the international
border into central Minnesota in the wake of the cold front.
Farther southeast in northwest Wisconsin and portions of the
I-35 corridor, temperatures will likely be warmer than yesterday
due to mostly sunny skies and a lack of storms. The front is
forecast to stall over southern Minnesota to northeast Wisconsin
and central Upper Michigan today with the western periphery
lifting north as a warm front into northern South Dakota and
southwest North Dakota. Meanwhile a second cold front will
propagate southeastward from the northern Canadian Prairies to
near the International Border by late this evening.

There will be two areas favored for additional thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening over the Dakotas and
southern Canadian Prairies. Global and regional models depict
possibly two MCSes developing once again tonight. Focusing on
the storm chances along the second cold front over southern
Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba this evening, the storms
which develop in that area may propagate into the Northland
early Monday morning. The northern cold front will sag
southeastward behind the eastern MCS. Shower and storm chances
will accompany the front Monday morning into the afternoon as
the front crosses the Northland. High temps on Monday will reach
the middle 70s north and the low 80s south. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible from the thunderstorms.

High pressure builds into the region on Tuesday will will
persist into next weekend. This will provide a period of cooler
temperatures initially (in the wake of the second cold front)
with a gradual warming trend late this week. Wednesday appears
to be the coolest with highs around 70 in the Arrowhead and
northwest Wisconsin to the middle 70s in central and north-
central MN. Those temperatures are 6 to 8 degrees below normal,
toward the cooler edge of the expected temperature range for
mid-July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions continue for this afternoon with diurnal cumulus
at 4000 ft or higher behind a cold front currently positioned
along a line roughly from Hinckley over to ASX. This will
continue until tonight when fog development is likely,
especially at HIB and HYR. DLH also has some visibility
reductions, but Lake Superior influences could keep fog from
developing at the terminal tonight. Overnight, another MCS is
expected to move through the region. The path is still
uncertain, and therefore the terminals affected are unknown.
Opted to put in VCTS for most that have lowest confidence,
especially those further east. Any stronger storms (most likely
near BRD) could produce large hail and damaging winds. However,
models agree that most areas should see scattered rain showers
throughout the mid morning on Monday.


&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A cold front will push eastward across western Lake Superior
this morning. Offshore winds early this morning turn
southwesterly away from the shoreline. Light southwest winds of
3 to 12 knots are forecast today and tonight. There is a chance
of thunderstorms Monday morning, a few of which may be strong.
Another cold front will move southeast over the region Monday
afternoon. Winds are forecast to veer northwest behind the
second front.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A Flood Advisory continues across portions of the Rainy River
Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far west as
the Rainy Lake outlet. This advisory has now been extended
through Monday afternoon. Lingering high water from rains in
June continue across the Rainy River Basin. The Vermilion River
continues to fall. Lake levels on Lac La Croix and Crane Lake
have crested, but are still elevated and slow to fall. Lake
Namakan looks like it is now cresting as of Friday morning.

All this high water continues to lead to slowing rises on
downstream lakes, notably Kabetogama (Kab) lake where minor
flooding continues, and on Rainy Lake where levels are still
exceeding the rule curve. Kab and Rainy Lake crests should
occur this weekend. This could bring Nam/Kab just under 1120
feet with a peak level somewhat similar to the high water during
the summer of 2014. This is still 2 feet or more below the high
water levels of Spring 2022 - we are nowhere close to that
level of flooding and extreme rises to that point are currently
not expected. As is usual for this basin, water will move slowly
and recessions will happen at glacial speeds with some flavor
of high water possibly continuing through the month. However,
peak should happen soon, based on latest observations.
Additional rainfall may cause brief rises in tributaries and
extend the period of high water in core lakes depending on where
and how much rain falls with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight through Monday. Boaters should expect
high water, potentially hidden underwater hazards (including
submerged docks), and strong currents in constricted areas. Some
of the storms this weekend could be strong to severe, which
could lead to erratic gusts out of thunderstorms and impact wave
heights, as well.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Huyck
HYDROLOGY...Rothstein