017
FXUS63 KDLH 142043
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
343 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief dry conditions will transition back to showers and
  storms in the early morning and will linger through Monday.
  Some isolated severe storms are possible early Monday and
  again Monday afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures will arrive for the mid week with
  scattered chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms.

- The Northland warms back up for the late week and a high
  pressure keeps mostly dry conditions in place for a few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A brief high pressure over the Northland is inhibiting any
convection for this afternoon, except for a cold front over
northwest Wisconsin that is kicking up some showers near Lake
Superior. These are expected to fizzle out pretty quickly, but
the outflow from these could trigger a few more along the South
Shore.

Overnight, a cold front over southern Manitoba and western
Ontario is expected to initiate another MCS near the Canadian
border. High res models and having difficulty with this system,
but are generally in consensus that this MCS will move
southeast across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota and
reaching the Northland early morning Monday. Environmentally,
the best instability will likely stay to our south and west,
which will limit our potential for severe weather with this MCS.
MUCAPE values expected are only up to around 1000 J/kg, but
wind shear looks sufficient at 30-40 kts. What`s more, these
storms will remain elevated and DCAPE values below 500 J/kg,
which will limit the damaging wind threat as well until it
reaches more favorable values further south. Severe hail remains
possible, however, with the sufficient MUCAPE and shear.

As we continue through Monday morning, the environment will
improve across northwest Wisconsin for severe weather. Large
hail and damaging winds are expected with MLCAPE 2000-3000
J/kg and shear 40-50 kts, but damaging winds are a higher
concern with the likely scenario that storms will quickly form a
line as it heads southeast through Wisconsin.

Heading into the mid week, a closed low aloft will swoop down
into the Great Lakes area and bring cooler temperatures with
highs in the 70s. Continuing northwest flow and CAA will keep
chances for showers and an embedded general thunderstorm or two
daily for the mid week. Towards the end of the week, a ridge
builds in the Central Plains and temperatures rise once again
and a high pressure keeps us mainly dry for the remainder of the
week. Models start to diverge on how long this dry period will
last, with some hinting at the return of northerly flow aloft
creating a few showers over the weekend, but certainty is low
on whether these showers will occur.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions continue for this afternoon with diurnal cumulus
at 4000 ft or higher behind a cold front currently positioned
along a line roughly from Hinckley over to ASX. This will
continue until tonight when fog development is likely,
especially at HIB and HYR. DLH also has some visibility
reductions, but Lake Superior influences could keep fog from
developing at the terminal tonight. Overnight, another MCS is
expected to move through the region. The path is still
uncertain, and therefore the terminals affected are unknown.
Opted to put in VCTS for most that have lowest confidence,
especially those further east. Any stronger storms (most likely
near BRD) could produce large hail and damaging winds. However,
models agree that most areas should see scattered rain showers
throughout the mid morning on Monday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the lake again
tonight through Monday. Some storms could be strong to severe
with large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, light winds
continue over western Lake Superior with winds not expected to
exceed 15 kts. Waves will be a foot or less today and Monday,
but may increase to 2 ft Tuesday along the South Shore as winds
shift from southwest to west to northwest.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A Flood Advisory continues across portions of the Rainy River
Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far west as
the Rainy Lake outlet. This advisory has now been extended
through Monday afternoon. Lingering high water from rains in
June continue across the Rainy River Basin. The Vermilion River
continues to fall. Lake levels on Lac La Croix and Crane Lake
have crested, but are still elevated and slow to fall. Lake
Namakan looks like it is now cresting as of Friday morning.

All this high water continues to lead to slowing rises on
downstream lakes, notably Kabetogama (Kab) lake where minor
flooding continues, and on Rainy Lake where levels are still
exceeding the rule curve. Kab and Rainy Lake crests should
occur this weekend. This could bring Nam/Kab just under 1120
feet with a peak level somewhat similar to the high water during
the summer of 2014. This is still 2 feet or more below the high
water levels of Spring 2022 - we are nowhere close to that
level of flooding and extreme rises to that point are currently
not expected. As is usual for this basin, water will move slowly
and recessions will happen at glacial speeds with some flavor
of high water possibly continuing through the month. However,
peak should happen soon, based on latest observations.
Additional rainfall may cause brief rises in tributaries and
extend the period of high water in core lakes depending on where
and how much rain falls with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight through Monday. Boaters should expect
high water, potentially hidden underwater hazards (including
submerged docks), and strong currents in constricted areas. Some
of the storms this weekend could be strong to severe, which
could lead to erratic gusts out of thunderstorms and impact wave
heights, as well.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
HYDROLOGY...Rothstein