105
FXUS63 KDLH 171652
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1152 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A relatively cool day today with highs in the lower 70s and
  partly cloudy skies.

- Gradual warmup through the week with highs in the low to mid
  80s this weekend.

- Some rain and thunderstorm chances make a return this weekend
  and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An upper level trough continues to pass through this morning,
and some lingering clouds from yesterday`s diurnal showers are
out there. With the cool northwest flow, some higher clouds are
forming over the North Shore, likely due to topographically-
forced gravity waves. As the upper level trough continues east
through this afternoon, the synoptic lift associated with it is
likely to produce some diurnal cumulus clouds. Showers are
generally not expected, except perhaps briefly this morning
where some CAMs suggest a few pop-up showers may impact mainly
Iron County as the trough passes through and perhaps the
slightest amount of lake-enhancement as temperatures over land
are ~10 degrees cooler than mean surface water temperatures over
Lake Superior. With relatively cool northerly flow today, highs
are only expected to reach into the lower 70s.

Tonight is likely to be rather chilly for summer standards. Lows
are expected to fall into the mid 40s to low 50s as surface high
pressure settles in, winds become calm, and skies clear out.

Broad riding over the western CONUS and surface high pressure
moving east will bring a return to southerly flow to the region
come Thursday, which will cause a gradual increasing trend in
temperatures going into the weekend. Much welcomed dry and quiet
weather is expected through Friday. There are some models that
suggest perhaps a weak wave on Friday that could bring some
instability and perhaps light showers, but confidence isn`t high
enough to include any precipitation in the forecast at this
time.

A generally wavy upper level setup is expected through Saturday
with the possibility for a weak back door cold front to move in
from the north/northeast. This may be enough to kick off some
showers or storms on Saturday. Strong storms are not expected
with weak shear aloft looking likely. Shower/storm chances may
stray south just a bit going into Sunday with potential for the
aforementioned front to more-or-less stall out. All things said,
the showers and storm chances over the weekend (20-40% chance)
are generally looking to be nuisance level. Temperatures are
looking rather toasty with highs rising into the low to mid 80s.

Next week`s weather looks slightly wavy aloft, and thus we may
enter into a pattern where we see some scattered afternoon
showers and storms on most days. Temperatures remain mild, and
excessive rain doesn`t look likely with rather persistent, but
weak, synoptic lift.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with high
pressure moving in. One-line TAFs. Didn`t include break for
ceilings disappearing overnight, just diurnal cumulus to keep it
simple. North winds may briefly gust above 20 kt here and
there.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Northerly winds will gradually decrease in speed through this
morning, then become westerly this afternoon. High pressure will
keep wind gusts at or below 10 kt through Wednesday night.
Increasing south to southwest winds are expected into Thursday
as high pressure moves east. Gusts up to 20 kt are expected for
many places, and perhaps approaching 25 kt near Grand Portage.
Wave heights of 2 ft or less are expected until mid-day
Thursday, then possibly to around 3 ft from Grand Marais to
Grand Portage through Thursday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...JDS