635
FXXX12 KWNP 201231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jul 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3751 (S08W06,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), the most complex region on the disk, also
produced an R1 event with an M2.0/2n flare at 19/1806 UTC. Associated
with the event was a reported Tenflare (470 sfu).

Beginning at approximately 19/1829 UTC, a DSF centered near S38E19 was
reported by USAF observatories. Modelling resulted in a clear miss to
the south.

Of the 18 numbered active regions with spots on the visible disk, only
Region 3744 (N16W62, Cro/beta), Region 3759 (S07E16, Dao/beta), and
newly numbered Region 3761 (S10E06, Dai/beta) exhibited growth. The
remaining regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a
slight chance for further X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 20-22 Jul.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 20-22 Jul. There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor)
storm levels on 20-22 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at or near background conditions. Total field
was 2-10 nT, the Bz component briefly reached as far south as -5 nT
around 19/1745 UTC. Solar Wind speeds were mostly between 320-380 km/s.
Phi angle was variable.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at near background levels
until the anticipated onset of CME influence late on 20 Jul and into 21
Jul. A return to ambient conditions is likely over 22 Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels on 20 Jul and
potentially G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels 21 Jul due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun late on 16 Jul. As CME
influence wanes, quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 22 Jul.