Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
926 FXXX12 KWNP 141231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jul 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3738 (S09E47, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest event of the period, an X1.2 flare (R3-Strong) 14/0234 UTC. AR 3738 also produced an M5.3 flare at 13/1242 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep (est. 297 km/s), however, no discernable CMEs were observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery. Development continued among the regions leader and intermediate spots. Three new regions were numbered near the SE limb. Region 3749 (S32E59, Cso/beta), Region 3750 (S20E58, Cao/beta), and Region 3751 (S07E68, Hsx/alpha). The remaining numbered regions on the visible disk only exhibited minor changes. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R1/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 14-16 Jul. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 14-16 Jul. There is a slight chance for an enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at S1 (Minor) storm levels over 14-16 Jul due to the location and flare potential of Region 3738. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... A nominal solar wind environment prevailed throughout the period. Total field strength hovered near 5 nT and Bz was mostly positive. Solar wind speeds were between 300-350 km/s and phi was variable. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible over 14-16 Jul due to potential positive polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field could reach unsettled to active levels, with the potential for periods of G1 (Minor) storms, on 14 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Isolated periods of active conditions on 15 Jul and unsettled periods over 16 Jul are likely due to waning CH HSS influences.