373
FXUS63 KDDC 181656
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal afternoon temperatures - mainly in the 80s - will
  continue through this weekend and early next week.

- Rain chances are minimal Thursday and Friday, with most
  locations dry.

- The next organized thunderstorm complex is expected Friday
  night and early Saturday, when locally heavy rainfall is again
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Midnight infrared satellite imagery indicated convective debris
clouds across SW KS, with decaying remnant showers near the
northwest zones per radar. Some CAMS such as 00z ARW, and the
00z NAM try to hold on to some of this activity across western
zones through sunrise, but this appears unlikely given current
trends and general lack of instability. More likely, the small
MCS in SE Colorado will progress southward into the NW
Panhandles by sunrise Thursday, largely bypassing Kansas.
Otherwise, a quiet summer night, with light winds and sunrise
temperatures in the 60s.

Light southeast winds will prevail Thursday, with a mix of mid
and high clouds expected. Southeast winds will average 10-20
mph, which will serve to keep dewpoints elevated into the lower
60s. Despite the moisture, models predict little forcing and
little instability, so most locations will remain dry. With NWly
midlevel flow overlaying the moist southeast winds, a stray
shower or thunderstorm is possible in the late afternoon or
evening, but the probability of measurable rain at any one
location is very low, < 20%. Afternoon temperatures will
resemble those observed Wednesday, in the mid to upper 80s,
which several degrees below normal for July.

596 dm subtropical high over Arizona 7 pm Thursday will continue
relatively in this position through Friday, with little change
in the synoptic regime. Models do show modest warming of 1-2C at
850 mb, allowing for high temperatures closer to normal, near 90
or in the lower 90s. The warmer temperatures will be encouraged
by stronger lee troughing and improved mixing, with stronger
south winds of 15-25 mph. Again most of daylight Friday will be
dry for most locations.

Models have been consistent on the next MCS development, and the
next best chance of widespread/significant rainfall, on Friday
night and early Saturday. 00z GFS/GEFS remain most consistent
with a shortwave propogating southward through the central
plains, denting the eastern periphery of the ridge, and aiding
in MCS development across western Kansas. 00z GEFS ensemble
members show a 60-70% probability of QPF > 0.10 inch favoring
the northern zones Friday night, a notion supported by the GFS
deterministic run with an MCS over northern zones. EPS also
shows MCS development, favoring more of the northeast zones.
NBM pops show a relative max in the midnight - sunrise Saturday
time frame, with chance to likely category maintained. Typical
of summer, the risks will be restricted to locally heavy
rainfall and strong/marginally severe outflow winds of 50-60
mph. SPC marginal 5% wind probability was pulled further
southward into the northern zones Friday night, which is
resonable given current model trends.

Saturday through at least next Wednesday, models show
remarkably little change in a static synoptic pattern across
North America, with a highly amplified flow featuring strong
ridging over the Great Basin and general troughing from the Corn
Belt to the Great Lakes. This pattern will not allow the heat to
return to SW KS; in fact, Sunday and Monday appear to be the
coolest days, during which afternoon temperatures will struggle
to reach 80 when light northeast surface winds are most
established.  This is quite the feat for late July, the
typically hottest time of year, when average highs are in the
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

In general we will have VFR flight category for all airports
during the TAF time period. Wind gusts between 18-00z could
briefly be as strong as 20 kts at times. With the upper level
winds continuing out of the northwest we could see an upper
level disturbance move in after 00Z which will lead to ~15% of
an isolated thunderstorm around GCK between 00-06Z. Later
tonight an upper level warm front could lead to spotty
thunderstorm development around DDC and HYS between 06-12Z
however thunderstorm probs will be 10-20%.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner