329
FXUS63 KDDC 161942
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
242 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will move across southwest Kansas tonight, with
  best chances in far southwest Kansas. Large hail and damaging
  winds will accompany these storms.

- A cooler weather pattern will persist Wednesday through early
  next week, with highs 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages.

- There are small chances for additional t-storms Wednesday and
  Thursday and better chances Friday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Moist low level upslope flow will lead to moderate instability
this afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop on the favored
topographic regions of Colorado by late afternoon and then
propagate into western Kansas after 23z. There is a chance given
weak capping that an isolated cell or two will develop ahead of
the line across west central Kansas during the evening. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are marginally supportive of supercells with
very large hail. Storms will congeal into a cluster after 00z
upon entering Kansas and propagate southeastward through extreme
southwest Kansas, possibly as far east as Dodge City. Damaging
winds as high as 70 mph are possible for places like Elkhart,
Liberal, Ulysses and Meade. Locally heavy rain is possible, but
current thinking is that the convective cluster will be fast
moving enough given the westerlies and outflow that flooding
will not be a major concern (aside from isolated pockets).

A cooler regime is forecast through the weekend and into early
next week. There are small to medium chances for thunderstorms
both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons given the northwesterly
flow and weak capping inversion. The best chances for storms is
across far western Kansas where higher amounts of instability
will exist. However, the various ensemble means are not
supportive of widespread heavy wain Wednesday and Thursday, with
less than 10% chances for 24 hr rain exceeding 1" even across
the far southwest. High temperatures will be in the mid and
upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

A series of shortwave troughs will move southward across the
central high plains late Friday through Sunday. Given the
meridional nature of the mid level flow, mid level capping will
continue to be weak so that chances for showers and
thunderstorms are medium to high. The EPS/GEFS and CMCE
ensemble means indicate 20-30% chances for greater than 1" of
rain for central Kansas, with lower probabilities farther west.
Ensemble mean rainfall is about .75" to 1" for the ECMWF and
CMCE and GEFS for the Friday to Sunday period. Expect highs in
the lower to mid 80s Friday through Sunday. The main upper
trough axis will to the south and east by Monday, with surface
high pressure building across the high plains so that rain
chances decrease markedly. Expect high temperatures in the upper
80s early next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Moist, easterly upslope flow will set the stage for
thunderstorm development just west of Kansas early this evening.
Westerly flow at mid levels will steer these storms into KLBL
and possibly KGCK and KDDC between 03 and 08z. Wind gusts to
40-50 kts are possible with the storm line, especially at KLBL.
Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are forecast, with
winds generally under 12 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch