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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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536 FXUS63 KDDC 170718 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 218 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for a few severe storms this afternoon and again Thursday evening in the far western counties. - Cooler temperatures are likely (60-70% chance) over the next 10 days as the precipitation also leans high than normal (33-40% chance). .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Rain cooled boundary layer air will help push the cold front farther south, leaving the entire forecast area in a cooler easterly upslope surface flow pattern for the next few days. Although winds will trend to a more southerly component, some southeast trajectory will be the prevailing wind through Friday. HREF ensemble member CAMS show potential for early afternoon convection developing in northeast Colorado, aided by the right entrance region of the mid level cyclonically curved jet over northwest Kansas and Nebraska. A better mid and lower lapse rate environment I the far west would be favorable for thunderstorm to ingest low 60s dewpoint surface parcels while spreading south in the northwest flow. On the larger scale, the upper westerlies area bottled up in northern Canada as an upper low rotates over the gulf of Alaska. This will keep the pattern of a hot thermals ridge over the western states under a 595 dm 500 mb anticyclone over the Desert Southwest for the balance of this 7 day forecast an probably beyond. Pleasant weather by early next week characterized by 850 mph temperatures around 15-16 deg C in central and southwest Kansas - translating into highs only in the upper 70s Sunday and Monday. In the meantime, high probability pops (50-60 percent) for 3 to 4 days out, Friday night into Saturday, are forecast by the NBM as a medium range pattern shifting surface tough moves across Kansas as the aforementioned northern and central Plains high pressure retreats into the eastern states. This setup is best reflected in the Cluster 3 GFS weighted 24 hour cluster analysis for days 3 and 4 (Friday/Saturday). This could mean more heavy rain producing thunderstorms beginning on or around Friday evening. And the cool wet patten looks to linger based on the CPC outlooks. The 6 to 10 day outlook favors a leaning wet pattern (33-40% chance of higher than normal precipitation) across the entire area. That is coupled with likely below normal temperatures (60 to 70% chance). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Decaying thunderstorms near the DDC terminal will quickly allow conditions to improve in the first hour of this TAF, ans TS ends altogether but patchy areas of -RA continue late as 11z. In the meantime westerly gusts to 30 knots are still possible as the rain comes down evaporatively cooling the layers. The balance of the day will be VFR conditions as the nest chance for precipitation will be late evening of the 17th, as a marginal risk for severe weather over eastern Colorado allows storms to roll into the western counties (to far west to impact GCK or LBL with severe winds). && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Russell