047
FXUS63 KDDC 171005
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
505 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for a few severe storms this afternoon and again
  Thursday evening in the far western counties.

- Cooler temperatures are likely (60-70% chance) over the next
  10 days as the precipitation also leans high than normal
  (33-40% chance).

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Rain cooled boundary layer air will help push the cold front
farther south, leaving the entire forecast area in a cooler
easterly upslope surface flow pattern for the next few days.
Although winds will trend to a more southerly component, some
southeast trajectory will be the prevailing wind through Friday.
HREF ensemble member CAMS show potential for early afternoon
convection developing in northeast Colorado, aided by the right
entrance region of the mid level cyclonically curved jet over
northwest Kansas and Nebraska. A better mid and lower lapse rate
environment I the far west would be favorable for thunderstorm
to ingest low 60s dewpoint surface parcels while spreading south
in the northwest flow.

On the larger scale, the upper westerlies area bottled up in
northern Canada as an upper low rotates over the gulf of Alaska.
This will keep the pattern of a hot thermals ridge over the
western states under a 595 dm 500 mb anticyclone over the Desert
Southwest for the balance of this 7 day forecast an probably
beyond. Pleasant weather by early next week characterized by
850 mph temperatures around 15-16 deg C in central and southwest
Kansas - translating into highs only in the upper 70s Sunday
and Monday.

In the meantime, high probability pops (50-60 percent) for 3 to
4 days out, Friday night into Saturday, are forecast by the NBM
as a medium range pattern shifting surface tough moves across
Kansas as the aforementioned northern and central Plains high
pressure retreats into the eastern states. This setup is best
reflected in the Cluster 3 GFS weighted 24 hour cluster analysis
for days 3 and 4 (Friday/Saturday). This could mean more heavy
rain producing thunderstorms beginning on or around Friday
evening. And the cool wet patten looks to linger based on the
CPC outlooks. The 6 to 10 day outlook favors a leaning wet
pattern (33-40% chance of higher than normal precipitation)
across the entire area. That is coupled with likely below normal
temperatures (60 to 70% chance).


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The local terminals will be free of impacts at least though 22
UTC. After that, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
be moving out of northwest KS, with potential for gusty winds.
HREF 4-hr probability of thunder wold strongly suggest little to
no risk for DDC and HYS, with chances for convection impacting
the LBL and GCK terminals between 10 and 20 % - by 02 UTC.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell