092
FXUS63 KDDC 112321
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very low chance (15%) of storms across far NW counties tonight

- Some mid level clouds or virga possible in the morning with no impacts

- Continued hot through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A weak MSLP gradient will prevail across the FA tonight. The net
result is light and variable winds through tonight. This is pretty
typical for winds during the Summer. Will be watching weak storms
forming across the higher terrain of Colorado this evening. Only
have 15% pops across the far NW counties this evening. Otherwise,
much of the FA will remain dry and quiet this evening. A weak wave
moves through in the morning. There could be some mid to high level
clouds or perhaps even virga in the morning across the central zones
if the atmosphere moistens enough. Otherwise, near normal lows are
expected tonight with values within a few degrees of 69F. Normal
is 66F.

On Friday, a 597 dm anticyclone moves from the Desert Southwest to over the
Great Basin to four corners region through the day. This supports
continued hot highs for the FA with values peaking within a few degrees
of 100F. Normal is 94F. A very weak lee trough will deepen during
the day, resulting in slightly breezy at times SSE to SW winds through
the day of 10 to 20 mph. On Saturday, the prevailing 500 hPa anticyclone
continues to move east and should be over the spine of the Rockies
during the day. The high will continue to prevail across the greater
region Sunday as well. This supports the forecast of continued hot
highs. This is supported by GEFS 70 to 90% probabilities of highs
>100F Sunday across southwest Kansas.

GEFS continues to indicate the probabilistic chance of >100F Monday as well
with 60 to 90% probabilities across the FA. Some minor good news
is that the prevailing ridge might flatten mid week next week as
a trof moves across the upper midwest. This may help to drop highs
down from the above normal range. This is reflected in both EPS and
GEFS probabilistic chances with no significant probabilities of >100F
to close out the extended period. Isolated storms are also possible,
however, confidence is extremely low this far out. The NBM pops of
20 to 40% look good enough for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A period of increasing clouds in the 9000 to 15000ft AGl level
can be expected between 03z and 09z Friday as an upper level
disturbance crosses southwest Kansas. Surface winds overnight
will be south southeast at less than 10 knots. These southerly
winds will increase into 10 to 15 knot range between 15z and 18z
Friday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert