638
FXUS63 KDDC 121025
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
525 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures expected through the weekend with highs
  topping the century mark.

- Drier conditions forecast through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

WV imagery indicates a northerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of a ridge axis edging eastward
through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a weak lee
side trough is anchored in eastern Colorado.

Hot and dry conditions are forecast today into tonight as the SREF
indicates an upper level high continuing to shift slowly east across
the Great Basin and Four Corners Region into the Colorado Rockies.
Despite sufficient moisture return providing modest instability,
less than favorable dynamic support aloft with upper level ridging
approaching from the west and lack of a forcing element in the lower
levels will keep thunderstorm chances at bay, and likely through the
weekend as the high edges farther east into the high plains of
western Kansas by Saturday. This is supported by the HREF pointing
to virtually no probability for any 6-hr QPF during much of the
period. Above normal temperatures are expected today as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a much warmer air mass across the area as
ridging aloft begins to nudge into the Western High Plains. The
HREF indicates a 90% probability of temperatures exceeding 95F
this afternoon with a 60 to 80% probability of highs topping
100F across much of the area. Similar conditions are likely to
persist through Sunday with medium range ensembles indicating
the upper level high moving fully out into the Western High
Plains by late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites throughout
the period. Light soutHerly winds through late morning are expected
to increase 15 to 25kt in the afternoon as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly strengthens in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson