092
FXUS63 KDDC 130710
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures expected into early next week with highs
  topping the century mark.

- Ongoing drier pattern is forecast to continue through early
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

WV imagery indicates a northerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of ridging aloft edging eastward
through the Colorado Rockies. Near the surface, a weak lee side
trough is anchored in eastern Colorado.

Hot and dry conditions remain in the forecast today into tonight as
the SREF indicates an upper level high continuing to shift slowly
east across Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Although
sufficient moisture return providing modest instability will linger,
an extremely weak flow aloft and a lack of a significant forcing
mechanism will considerably weaken thunderstorm chances today and
into the early part of next week as the upper level high dominates
the region. Above normal temperatures will persist today as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a much warmer air mass across the area while
ridging aloft spreads eastward across the high plains of western
Kansas. The HREF indicates a 90 to 100% probability of temperatures
exceeding 95F this afternoon with a 70 to 90% probability of highs
topping 100F across much of the area. Similar temperatures are
likely to persist through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites throughout
the period. Light southerly winds through mid-morning Saturday will
increase to around 15 to 25kt generally after 14-16Z as lee side
troughing strengthens in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson