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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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934 FXUS63 KDDC 141600 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1100 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Intense afternoon heat will continue Sunday and Monday. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night. - Much milder, more comfortable temperatures are expected Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A marked increase in surface dew points from 24 hours ago will begin contributing to higher heat risk going forward especially overnight and into Monday, in the eastern sections of the forecast area (Red Hills and Hays axis). Heat indices are not likely to reach or exceed the 105 degree mark everywhere this afternoon however a couple of different regimes here - a large area has about a 40-80 percent chance for meeting heat advisory criteria in the direr air of the west (Ulysses, Scott City, Garden City and westward) on just Temperatures alone despite suboptimal dewpoints. Counties in the southern forecast area will be added to the heat advisory in collaboration with Texas and Oklahoma areas. Tuesday and Tuesday night will see some relief from the hotter temperatures as chances for storms for our region of Kansas increase incrementally each day (20-30% north of a Liberal to Larned Line Monday night), ramping to 40 to 70%, southeast to northwest respectively on Tuesday night. These precipitation odds fit well with cluster analysis favoring the [day 4] 24 hr QPF clusters 2,3 and 4, which may explain the operational models, especially the (wettest) GFS which accounts for 43% of clusters 3 and 4s members. The push of modified northern Plains air and convection each night will put the brakes on the very hot air from returning, as the ensemble 500 mb patterns continue the plan a westward retrograding thermal axis, into the western 1/3 of the country through at least about 192 hours. Typically this pattern produces a setup for daily isolated convection up to MCS activity spreading from the eastern Colorado high terrain into western Kansas, with unique daily forecast challenges on the eastern extent of the storms based on downstream environments (lapse rates/MCS maintenance parameter) and available convective cold pools. EC/GFS ensemble mean 2 meter temperatures multiple run trend maintain 80s for highs and 60s for lows areawide through the end of the week before the 90s become more favorable in the ensemble members again by weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light winds. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for KSZ030-031- 043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Turner