006
FXUS63 KDDC 161027
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- MCS potential Tuesday evening with up to golfball size hail,
  damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding.

- Pattern shift in the upper levels will bring cooler
  temperatures across southwest Kansas

- Pattern shift will also keep chances of rain and storms in the
  forecast through the end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Clusters of severe storms moved through the smoky hill valley
overnight, with severe gusts between 60 and 80 mph. As these
most robust storms move out of the forecast area in the 3 am
hour, its noted by the CAMs some lingering showers and possibly
isolated TS may linger as late as 5 am, as HREF 1 hr calibrated
thunder falls to under 10%.

Model consensus is wells set on highs this afternoon still in
the 90s areawide - although the cooler end of the range of
outcomes, the 25th percentile of the NBM would suggest lows 90s
for the better part of the forecast area. As convective outflow
rolls across the k-96 corridor and north southward, with wetting
rain cooled air farther north, the cooler side of the guidance
may be the way to go this afternoon. SREF shows a gradual
increase in the layer precipitable water across the area from
north to south Today, reflected at the surface with dew points
in excess of 65 degrees (70-90 % extending all the way in to the
southwesternmost counties).

Based on the HREFs 3 hour QPF total probability matched means
 then most likely area for 1 to 3 inch rainfalls will be across
the southern 2 rows of counties - i.e. Johnson to Pratt and
south. And timing wise, the area from Johnson to Elkhart and
Liberal could see the impacts from heavy rain and severe weather
before 10 pm - based on tracks of the latest HREF HRRR and FV3
members. Spotty rapid runoff/flash flooding wouldnt be a
stretch given the values of the flash flood guidance across the
areas of a one and three hour basis. WPC excessive rainfall
guidance is in the slight category or 15%. The progressive
nature of the storms though will pre-empt any flood watch
issuance at this time, in collaboration with neighboring
offices.

A severe risk for hail damaging winds will also be ongoing
immediately as storms initiate in the early evening, with a
timing of about 7 pm and on through midnight.

Significantly (15 to 20 degrees lower) cooler temperatures are
forecast in the days heading through the weekend and early next
week. Mainly highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. With moist
(still carrying 60-65 degree dew points commonly) easterly
upslope surface winds each day bring some risk for late evening
and overnight MCS activity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A cold front will become the focal area for rapidly developing
late day or early evening thunderstorms with risks for IFR
visibility to a mile or so in heavy rain, in addition to hail
and damaging wind gusts. In the meantime as few lingering rain
showers will persist though this morning, but without impacts to
visibility or ceiling heights. VFR category flight conditions
and light wind through at least 23z before the first storms in
the area develop.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell