463
FXUS63 KDDC 161221 CCA
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- MCS potential Tuesday evening with up to golfball size hail,
  damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding.

- Pattern shift in the upper levels will bring cooler
  temperatures across southwest Kansas.

- Pattern shift will also keep chances of rain and storms in the
  forecast through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Clusters of severe storms moved through the Smoky Hill Valley
overnight, with severe gusts between 60 and 80 mph. As these most
robust storms move out of the forecast area in the 3 am hour, its
noted by the CAMs some lingering showers and possibly isolated TS
may linger as late as 5 am, as HREF 1 hr calibrated thunder falls to
under 10%.

Model consensus is well set on highs this afternoon still in the 90s
areawide - although at the cooler end of the range of outcomes, the
25th percentile of the NBM would suggest low 90s for the better part
of the forecast area. As convective outflow rolls across the K-96
corridor and north southward, with rain cooled air farther north,
the cooler side of the guidance may be the way to go this afternoon.
SREF shows a gradual increase in the layer precipitable water across
the area from north to south today, reflected at the surface with
dewpoints in excess of 65 degrees (70-90% extending all the way in
to the southwestern counties).

Based on the HREFs 3 hour QPF total probability matched means  the
most likely area for 1 to 3 inch rainfalls will be across the
southern 2 rows of counties - i.e. Johnson to Pratt and south. And
timing wise, the area from Johnson to Elkhart and Liberal could see
the impacts from heavy rain and severe weather before 10 pm - based
on tracks of the latest HREF HRRR and FV3 members. Spotty rapid
runoff/flash flooding wouldnt be a stretch given the values of the
flash flood guidance across the areas of a one and three hour basis.
WPC excessive rainfall guidance is in the slight category or 15%.
The progressive nature of the storms though will preclude any flood
watch issuance at this time, in collaboration with neighboring
offices.

A severe risk for hail and damaging winds will also be ongoing as
storms initiate in the early evening, with a timing of about 7 pm
and on through midnight.

Significantly cooler temperatures (by 15 to 20 degrees) are forecast
through the weekend and early next week. Mainly highs in the 80s and
lows in the 60s. Moist easterly upslope surface winds each day (60-
65 degree dewpoints) may bring some risk for late evening and
overnight MCS activity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A cold front will become the focal area for rapidly developing
late day or early evening thunderstorms with risks for IFR
visibility to a mile or so in heavy rain, in addition to hail and
damaging wind gusts. In the meantime a few lingering rain showers
will persist though this morning, but without impacts to visibility
or ceiling heights. VFR category flight conditions and light winds
through at least 23z before the first storms in the area develop.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell