032
ACUS48 KWNS 120848
SWOD48
SPC AC 120846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Western CONUS upper ridging is forecast to persist through at least
the middle of next week, with notable amplification anticipated on
D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Subtropical ridging will likely persist
across the Southeast states during this time frame as well, while
broadly cyclonic flow continues north of this subtropical ridging
from the northern Plains to the Northeast.

Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a
shortwave trough will progress through the cyclonic flow across the
north-central/northeast CONUS, moving from the Upper Midwest through
the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday. Thunderstorms may be ongoing
early D4/Monday across the Upper Midwest ahead of this shortwave,
with some potential for these storms to continue progressing
southeastward into the strong buoyancy expected downstream. Severe
gusts could occur with the resulting convective line if this
scenario is realized, and 15% severe probabilities were maintained
for this outlook. The outlook area was shifted slightly northward to
account for changes within the most recent guidance.

Aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward
through the Ohio Valley and Northeast on D5/Tuesday. Thunderstorms
are possible along this front, but shear will be modest and the
severe-thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be low.

The cold front will likely continue southward/eastward on
D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday, but model guidance differs on the
speed of its southward/eastward progression. Some limited severe
potential may linger across the Northeast on D6/Wednesday if the
slower frontal progression is realized. By D7/Thursday, the front
will likely extend from northern southern Plains through the Mid MS
and TN Valleys, and into the Mid-Atlantic, becoming displaced from
the stronger westerly flow aloft.

..Mosier.. 07/12/2024