041
FXUS65 KCYS 171016
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
416 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures will persist through the weekend with
  widespread daytime highs in the 90s for areas along and east
  of I-25.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist across
  the region over the next several days as several shots of
  monsoonal moisture ride along the western periphery of the
  upper level ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Hot temperatures are expected to persist through the duration of
the short term forecast period beneath strong ridging aloft over
a large portion of the central CONUS. 700-mb temperatures of +16
to +18 deg C should easily support daytime highs in the 90s over
much of the high plains over the next couple of days. Mostly dry
today w/ the influence of the thermal ridge and resulting strong
capping and very dry boundary layer. This may change by later in
the afternoon in response to a surge of monsoonal moisture along
the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge. Multiple CAMs
suggest the highest PoPs should be confined to the western zones
with the greatest coverage after 00z, although storms should not
be particularly widespread. Additional disturbances & associated
shots of monsoonal moisture may contribute to possible showers &
storms on Sunday afternoon and evening as well, but with the hi-
res suite suggesting very little coverage in response to the dry
boundary layer, have reduced PoPs below consensus guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Monday/Tuesday...Atmospheric moisture content remains about the same
for Monday, with a decrease on Tuesday. Despite ridging aloft, we
still anticipate scattered to numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms on Monday, most numerous near the Colorado state line,
with a significant decrease in coverage for Tuesday. Maximum
temperatures will be warmer for Tuesday with 700 mb temperatures
near 18 Celsius.

Wednesday...Although ridging aloft continues, precipitable water
values remain nearly the same as Tuesday, ranging from 0.7 to 1.3
inches. Thus, it looks like widely scattered to scattered late day
showers and thunderstorms again, most numerous near the Colorado
state line and west of a Douglas to Kimball line. 700 mb
temperatures remain near 19 Celsius, yielding maximum temperatures
from the mid 80s to upper 90s.

Thursday...The ridge axis aloft moves further east over the Central
Plains states, with an increase in atmospheric moisture for our
counties, thus providing more fuel for scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms, most numerous near the Colorado
state line. With more cloud and precipitation coverage, temperatures
will be slightly cooler.

Friday...Moist southwest flow aloft continues with another round of
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, most
common near the Colorado state line. Slightly cooler with more cloud
cover compared to Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions expected across area terminals through the
forecast period. Increasing cloud cover expected late Saturday
afternoon with scattered showers and possibly thunder headed
into the evening, mainly over southeast Wyoming terminals.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MB