198
FXUS65 KCYS 051740
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1140 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist
  over the next several days as a series of weak disturbances
  impact the region. The potential for measurable precipitation
  will remain quite low.

- A few storms may produce small hail and gusty winds on
  Saturday afternoon with a brief surge of pacific moisture, but
  the overall potential for severe storms will remain very low.

- Gradual warming trend expected through next week with limited
  precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A stagnant weather pattern will likely persist over the next few
days w/ active northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery
of high-amplitude ridging over the western US. A series of mid &
upper level disturbances should traverse the flow through Sunday
resulting in occasional chances for isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms, although modest moisture profiles are
expected to minimize potential for anything measurable over much
of the area. The lack of any substantial moisture return w/ less
than ideal boundary layer flow will likely preclude any risk for
strong/severe storms, though a push of Pacific moisture may help
support mid/upper 40s dew points and CAPEs over 500 J/kg by mid/
late afternoon Saturday which may support some small hail w/ the
strongest storms. Best chances for precipitation should be along
& east of I25 through the period given the expected storm track.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal with some
continued influence from the broad upper-level trough across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, though a general warming trend is
expected through the weekend as the ridge builds eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The long term remains on track with relatively warm and dry
conditions expected next week. Monday marks the start of a gradual
warming trend throughout the week as an upper-level trough axis
slowly pushes eastward, and eventually off into the Atlantic by mid-
week. Further west, a strong upper-level ridge will build over much
of western CONUS with a 500 mb high centered over the Great Basin.
As the ridge strengthens and slowly pushes eastward throughout the
week, warmer and drier 700 mb air will be ushered into the CWA. By
Thursday, 700 mb temperatures could be as warm as +18C, leading to
the return of above average temperatures for the majority of the
CWA. Expect widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, with even
warmer temperatures possible on Friday as 700 mb temperatures exceed
+20C. Precipitation chances during this time will be limited with
rising heights and very dry air, but they will not be zero. Weak
disturbances moving throughout the ridge look possible most days
next week. Although they are weak vort maxes, it is possible that
they could spark an isolated storm or two over or adjacent to the
high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Light NW
breezes this afternoon will weaken this evening. A few showers
or thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of KCDR and KAIA
overnight, mainly between 08z and 13z or so.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...MN