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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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718 FXUS61 KCTP 070230 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1030 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * A dry/rain-free first weekend of July continues tomorrow * Turning hot & humid through early next week; max heat index around 100 in parts of south central PA again Monday and Tuesday * Best chance of rain/t-storms next Tuesday PM; wetter pattern may setup for later next week as moisture from Beryl approaches && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Diurnal cumulus have dissipated this evening with the only low cloud still evident along the ridgetops in the Laurel Highlands. Expect clear skies overnight with calm winds as high pressure and more comfortable dewpoints settle into the region. Dewpoint depressions across the northwest are already only a few degrees, so expecting some valley fog to develop there and perhaps as far south as the Allegheny Front. A much more comfortable night is in store for all but the urban areas in our SE zones where lows will likely stay at or just above 70F. Elsewhere, expect lows in the 50s and 60s. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Very Warm to hot temps in the low 80s to low 90s are expected again on Sunday with abundant sunshine, a mix of high-based cu and cirrus and slightly reduced/lower humidity. Great weather for outdoor summer activities, but stay hydrated with breaks in the shade or indoors. The lower humidity will keep heat index values in check, but actual temperatures will be very similar to Saturday afternoon. Min temps Sunday night look similar to tonight with additional valley fog expected across the northern tier. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon with easterly/southeasterly flow bringing an increase of llvl moisture back to central Pennsylvania. Have kept isolated wording in the forecast as it seems coverage will be widely scattered/isolated with most places staying rain-free. Heat index values are likely to approach 100F again on Monday afternoon in the southeast. Increasing clouds are likely Monday night as a result of the combination of wind flow and positive moisture flux. As a result, lows on Monday night will be a bit milder and in the 65-75F range (+10-15F above climo). Fog possible again in locations that get rain, but clouds and southeast flow should limit radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As we move into the middle and end of next week, guidance depicts a pattern of unsettled weather with southwesterly flow brining moisture associated with Beryl to the area. There does remain some uncertainty between model solutions with respect to multiple disturbances throughout the week. Given a relatively warm and humid airmass throughout the period, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening hours. During this pattern, the best chance of showers/storms will be attributed with surface low pressure moving north of the area with an associated cold frontal passage Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Surging PWATs ahead of the frontal passage will provide ample moisture with enough forcing to produce locally heavy rainfall across eastern PA, outlined with a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) in the D4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the Weather Prediction Center. Despite rainfall chances, relatively warm temperatures are expected throughout the extended period with Tuesday pushing the highest heat index values this cycle. A brief cool down in the wake of the cold front is resolved fairly well in model guidance into Thursday; however, 500mb heights slightly increasing towards the end of next week and potentially into the weekend, outlining a slight warming trend towards the end of the period. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Winds will diminish and skies will clear for the overnight hours. Patchy fog could develop during the pre-dawn hours, esp across the valleys of N/W PA, and have maintained a hint of fog in the BFD TAF. Otherwise, VFR conds should prevail for much of central PA overnight. High pressure will provide widespread VFR conditions on Sunday, with a light westerly wind ~5 kts expected. Outlook... Mon...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected. Tue-Thu...Scattered mainly afternoon showers/storms and restrictions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff NEAR TERM...Lambert/Banghoff SHORT TERM...Lambert/Banghoff LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB AVIATION...Evanego