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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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108 FXUS64 KCRP 101736 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect for the Coastal Bend - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts this weekend Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge in place across the Southern Plains and an upper trough moving across the Great Lakes. Taking a look at the latest GOES TPW imagery, we see a plume of rich moisture with PWATs around 2" draped across our northeastern counties. This moisture will slowly drift south and west through the day, promoting a near 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Without much upper level support, any activity will be tied to the sea breeze. Forecast soundings show CAPEs greater than 3000 J/kg but very little shear, generally less than 10 knots. Therefore, any storms that form will be capable of gusty winds and small hail but should be fairly short-lived. Any convection will diminish shortly after sunset as we lose daytime heating. Went ahead and issued another Heat Advisory for the Coastal Bend from 2 PM to 6 PM as heat indices climb into the 110-112 range. This will promote a moderate to major heat risk. It`s possible we see a few inland spots exceed 110 as our moisture spreads inland but will likely be for less than 2 hours. Upper level ridging remains in control on Sunday. Moisture levels will lower tomorrow, so expecting a generally rain-free forecast. Lastly, continued with a low rip current risk through the weekend as winds will generally be around 10 knots with swells around 5s. However, Gerling-Hanson plots hint at a tertiary wave systems with swells around 8s. Feel confident in the low risk today but will need to monitor the coast through the day in case we need to bump up to a moderate risk. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts next week, with an extreme risk possible across the northern Brush Country by mid week. Mid to upper level ridging will remain in control through much of the Extended period maintaining generally dry and warm conditions across South Texas. However, low end rain and thunderstorm chances will be in the forecast Mon/Tues as models continue to indicate a weak mid-level inverted trough reaching the area and combining with the available moisture (PWATs ~2.0"). By mid to late week though, the ridge will be shifting eastward, but another one will build in from behind into the weekend. A few diurnally driven showers cannot be ruled out through the rest of the period, but chances are low enough to keep PoPs silent. In regards to the temperatures, these will continue to be very hot daily through the week and in the mid 80s to 105 range. These high temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s will lead to dangerous heat index values across the area all week (110+). The HeatRisk will be moderate to major areawide until next weekend, with an extreme risk possible across the northern Brush Country by mid week. The HeatRisk indicates the risk of heat related impacts to occur. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be required in later packages. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period except for ALI/VCT with MVFR VSBY`s tomorrow morning due to fog. Winds this afternoon will be out of the southeast with gusts up to 20 knots. Otherwise, light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow can be expected through next week. There is a low chance of showers and storms today. After a dry Sunday, low chances for showers and storms return early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 78 95 79 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 96 75 97 76 / 20 20 10 0 Laredo 103 78 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 76 98 76 / 20 10 10 0 Rockport 95 81 94 82 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 102 78 104 78 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 97 78 97 77 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 92 82 91 83 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344- 346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC LONG TERM....ANM AVIATION...BF/80