759
FXUS64 KCRP 101120
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
620 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Key Messages:

 - Heat Advisory in effect for the Coastal Bend
 - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts this weekend

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge in
place across the Southern Plains and an upper trough moving across
the Great Lakes. Taking a look at the latest GOES TPW imagery, we
see a plume of rich moisture with PWATs around 2" draped across our
northeastern counties. This moisture will slowly drift south and
west through the day, promoting a near 20% chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Without much upper level support, any activity will
be tied to the sea breeze. Forecast soundings show CAPEs greater
than 3000 J/kg but very little shear, generally less than 10 knots.
Therefore, any storms that form will be capable of gusty winds and
small hail but should be fairly short-lived. Any convection will
diminish shortly after sunset as we lose daytime heating.

Went ahead and issued another Heat Advisory for the Coastal Bend
from 2 PM to 6 PM as heat indices climb into the 110-112 range. This
will promote a moderate to major heat risk. It`s possible we see a
few inland spots exceed 110 as our moisture spreads inland but will
likely be for less than 2 hours.

Upper level ridging remains in control on Sunday. Moisture levels
will lower tomorrow, so expecting a generally rain-free forecast.

Lastly, continued with a low rip current risk through the weekend as
winds will generally be around 10 knots with swells around 5s.
However, Gerling-Hanson plots hint at a tertiary wave systems with
swells around 8s. Feel confident in the low risk today but will need
to monitor the coast through the day in case we need to bump up to a
moderate risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts next week, with an
extreme risk possible across the northern Brush Country by mid week.

Mid to upper level ridging will remain in control through much of
the Extended period maintaining generally dry and warm conditions
across South Texas. However, low end rain and thunderstorm chances
will be in the forecast Mon/Tues as models continue to indicate a
weak mid-level inverted trough reaching the area and combining with
the available moisture (PWATs ~2.0"). By mid to late week though,
the ridge will be shifting eastward, but another one will build in
from behind into the weekend. A few diurnally driven showers cannot
be ruled out through the rest of the period, but chances are low
enough to keep PoPs silent.

In regards to the temperatures, these will continue to be very hot
daily through the week and in the mid 80s to 105 range. These high
temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s will lead to dangerous heat
index values across the area all week (110+). The HeatRisk will be
moderate to major areawide until next weekend, with an extreme risk
possible across the northern Brush Country by mid week. The HeatRisk
indicates the risk of heat related impacts to occur. Additional Heat
Advisories will likely be required in later packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals.
However, there is still a small window this morning for patchy fog
to develop at ALI. Southeasterly winds will increase through the
day with gusts up to 20 knots possible at ALI/COT/LRD. Winds
become light again late this evening. Another round of patchy fog
is possible at ALI around sunrise Sunday morning.

Lastly, isolated showers and storms will be possible this
afternoon, generally at VCT. However, confidence is low in overall
coverage so did not include any mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow can be expected through
next week. There is a low chance of showers and storms today.
After a dry Sunday, low chances for showers and storms return
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  78  95  79 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          97  75  97  76 /  20  20  10   0
Laredo           103  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            100  76  98  76 /  20  10  10   0
Rockport          96  81  94  82 /  20   0   0   0
Cotulla          103  78 104  78 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        99  78  97  77 /  10   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       93  82  91  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ242>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...TC/95