980
FXUS64 KCRP 101957
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
257 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Key Messages:

 - Heat Advisory in effect for the Coastal Bend
 - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts this weekend

Not much change to the forecast as a hot and humid weather
pattern continues across South Texas due to the influence of a
persistent subtropical ridge. Elevated PWAT`s around 2.0 are
expanding from a plume of moisture spreading south and west
leading to a low 15-30% chance for some showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening mainly along the seabreeze.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will range in the mid-90s along
the coast to the low 100s inland. Heat indices are expected to
range between 110+ degrees today prompting a Heat Advisory mainly
along the Coastal Bend. Locations inland of this especially across
the the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads may
experience heat indices of at least 110 for a few hours but is
expected to not last long enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for
those areas. Regardless, there`s a moderate to major risk of
heat-related impacts across South Texas this weekend. Please take
precautions to mitigate heat exposure. Tomorrow is less likely to
need a Heat Advisory as slightly cooler dew points and surface
temperatures are expected as the mid-level ridge flattens out.

Overnight will remain warm with lows in the mid 70s to low 80s
across the region under partly cloudy skies.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Key Message:

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts next week, with an
extreme risk possible across the northern Brush Country by mid week.

Not much change with the overall forecast next week. Summer time
conditions will continue with hot and humid days and muggy nights
and generally rain free for most areas.

Mid/upper level high pressure will remain in control through next
week. There is a low (20% or lower) chance of convection Monday and
Tuesday, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads. Models continue to
indicate an inverted trough moving west across S TX around the
southern periphery of the high pressure on Monday and Tuesday.
Sufficient moisture with pockets of 2 inch PWATs will be in place,
mainly across the eastern portions of S TX. The inverted trough and
limited moisture combined with a moderately unstable environment and
the daily sea breeze will be conducive for isolated convective
development, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads where the capping
inversion will be weakest. Most locations will remain dry.

Heat will continue to be the main concern through next week with
highs ranging from low 90s along the immediate coastline to around
105 across the Rio Grande Plains each day. These high temperatures
combined with a humid airmass will lead to heat indices ranging from
105 to 110 across S TX with some locations briefly reaching 111-114
degrees in the afternoons. This will lead to a moderate to major
risk of heat related impacts with the northern Brush Country
becoming extreme by mid week. Heat Advisories may be needed each day
if heat indices of 110 or higher look to be widespread and last a
couple of hours or more.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period except for
ALI/VCT with MVFR VSBY`s tomorrow morning due to fog. Winds this
afternoon will be out of the southeast with gusts up to 20 knots.
Otherwise, light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow can be expected to
persist through next week. Generally dry conditions will continue
through next week with a low (10-20%) chance for showers and
thunderstorms today and a low to medium (10-35%) chance across
mainly the offshore waters on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  94  79  95 /   0  10   0  10
Victoria          75  95  76  96 /  10  10   0  20
Laredo            78 101  78 102 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             76  97  76  99 /   0  10   0  10
Rockport          81  94  81  94 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           78 103  78 105 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  96  78  97 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  91  82  91 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344-
     346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...BF