Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
314 FXUS64 KCRP 082331 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 631 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Minor river flooding is forecast along the Guadalupe River near Bloomington early Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. - Low to medium (30-55%) rain chances this afternoon and Wednesday, then again this weekend. - Low to moderate daily risk of heat-related impacts, especially into weekend. Please continue to take heat safety precautions. Visit weather.gov/heat for more resources. - Plume of Saharan dust will likely cause hazy conditions and reductions in air quality Wednesday through Friday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 GOES satellite depicts a moisture axis consist of greater than 75th percentile PWAT values (>2.0") inland along the Texas Coast. This moisture axis combined with an inverted mid-level trough has set the stage for showers and thunderstorms to develop over the Victoria Crossroads and portions of the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country this afternoon. Rain chances will quickly diminish as we head into the nighttime hours but low to medium rain chances will return once again Wednesday with the aid in surface heating as the mid-level disturbance moves westward. I`m not as confident in the forecast later this week, Thursday through the weekend. NBM has very low (<20%) rain chances Thursday through Friday; however, the latest 12Z models and ensemble guidance are in good agreement with a mid-level low over the Bay of Campeche moving northwest into eastern Mexico or Deep South Texas. This feature combined with and reinforcing moisture, makes me think there should be higher chances of precipitation. The guidance may have sped up since the last package and NBM containing older runs may be under-doing PoPs Thursday into Friday and holding onto them for too long into Sunday when ridging becomes to dominate. Another element to consider is the Saharan dust plume expected to increase substantially Wednesday through Thursday night: Would this suppress moisture? Help initiate more cloud/ice condensation nuclei? Steepen lapse rates to aid in convection? There`s a lot of uncertainty but elements we need to watch out for in future runs. Low rain chances to begin next work week but conditions aren`t as favorable with more ridging and PWAT values dropping to around or below normal. Heat risk will continue to run from minor to moderate into early next week. Recent and current rainfall upstream of the Guadalupe River has led to water levels exceeding action stage at Victoria and expected to reach minor flood stage near Bloomington. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will persist this evening with showers generally moving out of the area. Some showers continue between VCT and ALI, but should be ending by around 00Z. Overnight, while guidance isn`t indicating much in the way of MVFR CIGS, climatologically speaking, and without an airmass change, would expect we`ll see some brief BKN CIGS at most sites as has happened the past several nights, so have added that in tempo groups. VFR conditions return by mid-morning Wednesday. The potential for showers and storms tomorrow is fairly low for most of the area, and have only included in VCT TAF at this time, but will have to continue to watch the potential for some sea breeze convection to impact other sites as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A gentle to moderate onshore breeze (BF 3-4) during the first half of the week will increase to a more moderate (BF 4) breeze across most of the waters by Thursday with periods of Fresh (BF 5) over bays and nearshore waters late in the week. Low to moderate chances (25-50%) for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday, with lower chances (<30%) through Friday before increasing again this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 93 76 93 / 10 30 10 10 Victoria 75 92 75 93 / 10 50 10 20 Laredo 77 98 76 100 / 10 20 20 0 Alice 74 95 74 96 / 0 30 20 10 Rockport 80 90 80 90 / 10 30 10 10 Cotulla 77 98 77 99 / 10 20 20 10 Kingsville 75 93 75 94 / 0 30 0 10 Navy Corpus 80 89 80 89 / 10 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...PH/83