233
FXUS64 KCRP 162045
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
345 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Key Messages:

- High chance for another Heat Advisory tomorrow across the Coastal
  Plains, Victoria Crossroads and the Brush Country

Not to continue beating a dead horse, but hot conditions will
continue through Saturday as upper level ridging holds firm. Above
normal temperatures combined with ample moisture will lead to a high
chance for another Heat Advisory tomorrow across the Coastal Plains,
Victoria Crossroads and the Brush Country. With overnight recoveries
remaining poor, a moderate to major risk of heat-related illnesses
will continue through tomorrow night.

There is a very low chance (less than 15%) of showers along the
afternoon seabreeze tomorrow, but confidence remains too low to
include any mention of this in the forecast grids.

Please continue to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities,
wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat
stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before
locking it. Remember your pets too by bringing them inside and
providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local
media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Key Message:

- Moderate to Extreme risk of heat related impacts continue next
  week

Persistence is the name of the game for the long-term period as the
region will be dominated by a blocking pattern. An upper-level ridge
just Lee of the Rockies will keep high pressure anchored to the
Southern Plains close to NM/TX border for the first part of the
week. Then the pattern may begin to change as the models hint at
the block breaking down allowing for an eastward progression to
begin towards the end of the period. However, the models have a
wide disparity and not much confidence in this change, yet.

The week is expected to be hot and dry with no chance for rainfall
except towards the end of the week with a low 15-20% chance across
the Victoria Crossroads as a weak low-level disturbance approaches
from the Gulf concurrent with a plume of moisture, but this will
likely ride around the periphery of the high, so not expecting much
if any precipitation at this point. Otherwise, the heat and humidity
continues to bring a moderate to extreme risk of heat related
impacts with heat indices climbing into the 110-114 degree range
over a broader area that will encompass much of South Texas by mid-
week. Please remember to stay well hydrated, wear light colored,
loose fitting clothes and stay in air-conditioning as much as
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain in place throughout this TAF
cycle except for a low chance of reduced visibilities late tonight
into tomorrow morning into MVFR categories at ALI and VCT. Winds
will be a bit gusty this afternoon and decrease across the eastern
sites around 02/03z and the western sites around 08/09z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through next week with
a very low (less than 10%) chances of rain tomorrow across the
offshore Gulf waters. Very low rain chances will start to
increase to around 15-30% by the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  80  96  79 /   0   0  10   0
Victoria          97  77  98  77 /  10   0  10   0
Laredo           103  78 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            101  77 101  77 /   0   0  10   0
Rockport          94  82  95  81 /   0   0  10   0
Cotulla          105  79 105  79 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        99  78  98  79 /   0   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       92  83  92  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344-
     346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...JCP