975
FXUS64 KCRP 091131
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
631 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory conditions across portions of the Coastal Bend
  this afternoon.

- Low to medium rain/storm chances through Wednesday.

The combination of plentiful tropical moisture (PWATs above 2")
and some weak impulses left over from Beryl will provide low to
medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today through
Wednesday. A few showers have already developed over the marine
zones early this morning, and the activity is expected to shift
inland through the day as a weak seabreeze kicks in. Aside from
this, the main hazard today will be the hot temperatures and humid
conditions leading to another round of Heat Advisory conditions
over portions of the Southern Coastal Plains. An Advisory is in
effect from 1-7 PM today for coastal and inland portions of San
Patricio, Nueces and Kleberg counties, extending westward into Jim
Wells. Heat index values up to 114 degrees are expected over the
area under the advisory, with 105-109 elsewhere across South Texas
(including the islands). Another hot day is in store Wednesday,
with advisory conditions likely again across portions of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

As a 500mb high over the Gulf of Mexico retrogrades to the west
back towards South Texas, some deep tropical moisture (2.0-2.3
inch PWATS) will be advected into our area through the remainder
of the period. A series of shortwaves will sweep through the
region concurrently with the arrival of the sea breeze during peak
heating each day. This will allow for a low to medium chance for
showers and thunderstorms to develop each day during the remainder
of the period. With the presence of this deep moisture, there
will be a low to medium chance for heat stress related impacts as
well. High temperatures will be in the 90s warming to the lower
100s by the end of the period. Dew points will be in the 70s
across the region which will allow for heat indices to be around
105-110 for majority of the period. This would potentially warrant
a issuance of a heat advisory though that will be reassessed in
later forecasts. Rain chances begin to dwindle as we enter next
week as the 500mb high to our east arrives in South Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the cycle at area
terminals. The only exception is a brief TEMPO this morning for
MVFR conditions at ALI/VCT due to potential fog formation. A few
showers and thunderstorms may impact the sites today. Although
confidence in occurrence is not high enough to be added into the
TAFs at this time, there is an exception at VCT where vicinity TS
has been included already at around 21Z today. Aside from this,
expect generally light and variable winds through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

A weak and variable flow today will become more onshore overnight
tonight. Surface high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico
will provide mostly favorable marine conditions Wednesday and
beyond. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected with
seas generally running between 1 to 3 feet. Daily low to medium
rain and thunderstorm chances will exist today through the
weekend across the marine zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  79  95  76 /  10  20  30  10
Victoria          94  75  95  73 /  20  10  20  10
Laredo           101  79  98  77 /  20  20  20  10
Alice             99  76  97  74 /  20  10  30  10
Rockport          94  81  94  80 /  20  20  20  20
Cotulla          102  78 100  76 /  30  20  20   0
Kingsville        99  77  97  77 /  10  20  30  10
Navy Corpus       92  82  92  81 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ241>244-342>344.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...ANM/88