564
FXUS64 KCRP 091951
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
251 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM.

Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a cluster of thunderstorms
surging south across the Hill County. An outflow boundary can be
seen pushing out ahead of the storms. Additional activity may
develop along this boundary as it moves south. We will also need
to monitor it`s interaction with the seabreeze later on this
afternoon. Rainfall rates have been fairly impressive with these
storms with rates nearing 2"/hr in some spots. Latest CAMs
continue to hint at activity making it into the Brush Country and
Victoria Crossroads were fizzling out with the loss of daytime
heating. Otherwise for this afternoon/evening, a Heat Advisory
remains in effect through 7 PM for the Southern Coastal Bend.

Another round of patchy fog is possible across the Coastal Plains
and Victoria Crossroads early Wednesday morning. Moderate rain
chances return on Wednesday as a plume of healthy tropical moisture
is tugged through the region. Activity over the waters during the
morning will push inland with the seabreeze through the day. It`s
possible we see some enhanced activity during the afternoon as weak
shortwave passes through. Activity will wane through the evening
hours Wednesday.

Looking at our temps for tomorrow, highs will settle into the low to
upper 90s. This will lead to heat indices in the 105-109 range. A
few spots may briefly hit 110 but not for long enough to warrant
a Heat Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Deep tropical moisture will continue to move into the region through
the end of the week. This combined with a few H5 shortwaves moving
in from the Gulf of Mexico will keep medium afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast Thursday and Friday. Slightly
drier conditions are anticipated this weekend into early next week
as an H5 ridge builds over the area. A slow warming trend is
expected throughout the period with lower to middle 90s expected
through Saturday before warming into the upper 90s to lower 100s
Sunday and beyond. Heat indices will generally climb into the 105 to
110 degree range each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place and will prevail through
much of the period. ALI/VCT have a moderate chance of seeing some
patchy fog develop around 10Z leading to brief MVFR conditions.
Included a mention of VCTS at COT/LRD/VCT this evening as the
latest CAMS continue to hint at isolated convection developing
north of the region and drifting south. Otherwise, winds will
gradually shift around to the southeast this afternoon, while
generally staying less than 12 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Onshore flow will become reestablished this evening with a south-
southeast flow taking us into the middle of the work week. Surface
high pressure sprawling across the northern Gulf of Mexico
provides mostly favorable marine conditions Thursday and beyond.
Light to moderate onshore winds are expected through the weekend
and into next week. Seas will generally run between 1 to 3 feet.
Daily low to medium rain chances continues through the work week
before decreasing to low chances this weekend into early next
week

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  77  91 /  10  30  10  40
Victoria          76  95  73  93 /  20  20   0  40
Laredo            78  98  77  96 /  30  40  10  30
Alice             76  97  75  94 /   0  40   0  50
Rockport          81  93  79  93 /  20  30  10  40
Cotulla           78  99  77  99 /  30  20   0  20
Kingsville        77  95  76  93 /   0  40   0  50
Navy Corpus       82  90  80  90 /  20  30  10  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ241>244-342>344.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....DR/99
AVIATION...TC