806
FXUS64 KCRP 121131
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
631 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect for portions of the Coastal Bend this
  afternoon.

- Low to medium rain/thunderstorm chances east today and Tuesday.

A mid to upper level inverted trough will drift westward into the
area through the short-term period riding on the southern periphery
of the high as this one shifts eastward. Deeper tropical moisture
will be arriving through the period as well with PWATs increasing
to around 2.0". This moisture increase in combination with the
passing disturbance aloft will bring a low to medium chance for
showers and thunderstorms (PoPs 20-40%) today and Tuesday. A few
showers have already developed over the coastal waters early this
morning, and the activity is forecast to drift inland through the
day, being enhanced along the seabreeze in the afternoon hours.
Rain chances will taper off overnight tonight, before returning
Tuesday morning.

Aside from the rain and storm chances, the main headlines for
today will be the potential for dangerous heat conditions. Given
moisture is expected to increase across the area today leading to
afternoon dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s along the coast and
high temperatures in the 90s, a Heat Advisory has been issued. The
Advisory for now covers coastal and inland portions of the Coastal
Bend, but an expansion farther inland cannot be ruled out depending
on how much heating can be achieved today. Overall, heat index
values will range between 109-112 over much of the area today, and
likely again tomorrow. Additional advisories may be required in
later packages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance of showers and storms over the northern Coastal Bend
Wednesday

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the weekend.

A low chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger Wednesday
afternoon as the seabreeze moves over the Victoria
Crossroads/northern Coastal Bend where PWATs are expected to range
from 2.0-2.2". By Wednesday night, chances for rain become too low
for even a mention in the forecast as the high pressure ridge
redevelops over the area.

The big concern for the upcoming week and weekend will be heat
related impacts. High temperatures will remain in the 90s across the
coast to around 105 out west. Heat index values will range from 105-
114 across most of the area, with isolated locations experiencing
even higher heat indices.  Please continue to use caution. If you
must be outdoors, remember to drink plenty of water, take breaks out
of the sun, wear sunscreen, and protect yourself and your pets from
this heat. Heat stroke is an emergency; call 9-1-1 if you or a loved
one are experiencing symptoms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle except for
ALI, where a couple of more hours of IFR/LIFR are anticipated due
to reduced visibilities from fog. Winds will increase once again
this afternoon across all sites and remain elevated until about
02/03z for the eastern sites and 06/08z for the western sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

There is a low to medium 20-40% chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters today and Tuesday, followed
by a low chance 20% on Wednesday offshore. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected through the rest of the week. Weak to
moderate south to southeast winds will continue through the week
into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  80  95  80 /  20  10  10   0
Victoria          96  77  96  77 /  20  10  40   0
Laredo           101  79 103  79 /  10  10  10   0
Alice             98  77  98  77 /  20  10  20   0
Rockport          94  82  94  82 /  10  10  20   0
Cotulla          103  79 104  78 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        97  79  97  79 /  20  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       91  82  91  83 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ242>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...JCP/84