701
FXUS64 KCRP 170009
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
709 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Key Messages:

- High chance for another Heat Advisory tomorrow across the Coastal
  Plains, Victoria Crossroads and the Brush Country

Not to continue beating a dead horse, but hot conditions will
continue through Saturday as upper level ridging holds firm. Above
normal temperatures combined with ample moisture will lead to a high
chance for another Heat Advisory tomorrow across the Coastal Plains,
Victoria Crossroads and the Brush Country. With overnight recoveries
remaining poor, a moderate to major risk of heat-related illnesses
will continue through tomorrow night.

There is a very low chance (less than 15%) of showers along the
afternoon seabreeze tomorrow, but confidence remains too low to
include any mention of this in the forecast grids.

Please continue to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities,
wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat
stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before
locking it. Remember your pets too by bringing them inside and
providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local
media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Key Message:

- Moderate to Extreme risk of heat related impacts continue next
  week

Persistence is the name of the game for the long-term period as the
region will be dominated by a blocking pattern. An upper-level ridge
just Lee of the Rockies will keep high pressure anchored to the
Southern Plains close to NM/TX border for the first part of the
week. Then the pattern may begin to change as the models hint at
the block breaking down allowing for an eastward progression to
begin towards the end of the period. However, the models have a
wide disparity and not much confidence in this change, yet.

The week is expected to be hot and dry with no chance for rainfall
except towards the end of the week with a low 15-20% chance across
the Victoria Crossroads as a weak low-level disturbance approaches
from the Gulf concurrent with a plume of moisture, but this will
likely ride around the periphery of the high, so not expecting much
if any precipitation at this point. Otherwise, the heat and humidity
continues to bring a moderate to extreme risk of heat related
impacts with heat indices climbing into the 110-114 degree range
over a broader area that will encompass much of South Texas by mid-
week. Please remember to stay well hydrated, wear light colored,
loose fitting clothes and stay in air-conditioning as much as
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Little change in conditions through this forecast period. Mainly
MVFR with few clouds. Could see a brief period of MVFR VIS toward
morning at ALI, smaller chance at VCT. Winds will be gusty west
this evening, then increasing to moderate levels for all sites
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through next week with
a very low (less than 10%) chances of rain tomorrow across the
offshore Gulf waters. Very low rain chances will start to
increase to around 15-30% by the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  96  79  95 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          77  98  77  98 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            78 103  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             77 101  77  99 /   0  10   0  10
Rockport          82  95  81  96 /   0  10   0   0
Cotulla           79 105  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  98  79  97 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  92  83  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...PH/83